Research On The Formation Mechanism Of Contemporary American Financial Crisis

The contemporary American financial crisis in 2007 which caused the contemporary international financial crisis,took a heavy toll on many countries'economic development,and the world economy hasn't totally emerged from its shadow until now.Developed countries still have the possibility to fall into recession,because American sovereign credit rating is downgraded and European sovereign debt problem is deteriorating.There are many papers researched on the cause of the outbreak of the contemporary American financial crisis,but most of them are limited to qualitative analysis,less of them apply quantitative methods.In the background of economic globalization,it is believed that,to accurately depict the degree of the influence of contemporary American financial crisis and to demonstrate the decisive factor and the deep outbreak reason will contribute to the study of the formation mechanism of contemporary American financial crisis,and to provide effective countermeasures for China to strengthen financial security.Firstly,the concepts of uncertainty,financial risk and financial crisis are defined,and their mutual relations and the evolution processes are analyzed.The concepts which related to contemporary American financial crisis are also defined.Secondly,from the description of uncertainty in American financial market,and based on the analysis of subprime mortgage risk,the outbreak of contemporary American financial crisis is showed panoramically.Then,the impaction on major developed countries,major developing countries and the global financial pattern is analyzed.Thirdly,learning from speculative pressure index and exchange market index,financial crisis pressure index is constructed to reflect the degree of the influence of contemporary American financial crisis.According to the property of small probability of contemporary American financial crisis,Hill statistic which based on extreme value theory is applied to select the critical value of financial crisis pressure index,and the critical value is compared with those selected by kurtosis method and mean standard deviation method.An indicator system analyzing the outbreak reason of contemporary American financial crisis is also constructed,which includes macroeconomic performance indicators,monitoring indicators of the financial system and asset price bubble indicators.Applying random forest model,the importance of the indicators is demonstrated.According to the rank of the importance of the indicators,the decisive factor which caused contemporary American financial crisis is analyzed,and the deep outbreak reasons are analyzed from the level of economic system,humanistic spirit and technological innovation.The study has following conclusions.Financial risk is the loss caused by the phenomenon of fluctuation of uncertainty,and financial crisis is the aggregation and diffusion of financial risk.The process of the outbreak of contemporary American financial crisis is also meeting the above evolution rule.The critical value of financial crisis pressure index selected by Hill statistic and kurtosis method is better than those selected by mean standard deviation method.And the critical value of financial crisis pressure index selected by Hill statistics is the best in the three methods,which is also the judgment to describe contemporary American financial crisis as binary values.According to random forest model,asset price bubble which is represented by the variation rate of house price index,is the decisive factor for the outbreak of contemporary American financial crisis.In contrast,the degree of the influence of macroeconomic performance indicators and monitoring indicators of financial system is smaller.The main cause of asset price bubble is the excessive deviation between the virtual economy and the real economy in America,and asset price bubble has burst because of the credit default by transaction entities and the capital flows in the financial market,then it quickly spreads to other countries in the dollar economy.Through further analysis of the asset price bubble,the deep reasons caused contemporary American financial crisis are the basic contradictions of the capitalist system,the decay of social morality and credit system,the overdone financial innovation.Based on the important revelations from the conclusions and combined with Chinese situation,several countermeasures are provided.They are following:strengthening the monitoring of asset price bubble,improving the market economy system,strengthening socialist spiritual civilization,and further improving the financial firewall.