| Water resource is the strategic resource of modern economy and social development.It's an important resource of sustainable development and a basic guarantee of human to live and work in peace and contentment.With the boom of China's economic development and speed up of urbanization,shortage of water,deterioration and pollution are becoming key problems restricting the development.Lake water is an important water source.The rapid industrial development brings big challenges to the sustainable use of lake water resources.Plateau lakes are mostly located in the underdeveloped regions,district economic development demands urgently.The sustainable development of the Lake District is the key.How to explore the models to realize the harmonious development of economy,society,resources and environment under the precondition of resource constraints is very important.Thisarticle makes research on sustainable development ability construction and system model of plateau Lake District based on the perspective of highland urban lake.To ensure the scientific and maneuverability of evaluation system and system model is strong,in this paper,we sort out the concept of sustainable development ability and corresponding indicator system.A Summary of the system dynamics method on the basis of sustainable development in research was summarized.We use the method of objectives oriented project planning and dynamic decision making experiment in the study and get sustainable development ability evaluation index system and model of the system of highland urban Lake District.Use the dates of the population,resources,economic and environmental of Erhai Lake District to test and simulation the model.Through the sustainable degree,development degree and coordination degree among continental spatial distance,the dates are calculated and finally draw sustainable development ability numerical size of Lake District.Macro system index relationship-System Specifications relationship-Seek value into the equation,this process can help us build a new way to get evaluation method with the combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis.Combined with system dynamics software VENSIM,we use dates in District of Erhai Lake to study the reality status,the sustainable use of water resources and the sustainable use of the whole system.With simulations conducted in different designs simulated on the basis of sustainable development of Lakes size and empirical research on sustainable development capacity of Erhai Lake,we verify scientific judgment,feasibility and practicality of system models and evaluation index of sustainable development ability of highland urban Lake District.On the basis of sustainable development experience of Erhai Lake,we proposed Measures of the sustainable development capacity-building in highland urban Lake District,providing ideas for other urban lakes and regional economic development.The main specific results are as follows:Firstly,we integrated the symbiotic relationship between the lake and Highland city and proposed the concept of sustainable development of highland urban Lake District.Task Force has been successively making research from the tourism industry of the Lake of Dian Chi,the determination and countermeasures condition in sustainable development of the Lake of Fuxian,healthy functioning of natural ecological,economic and social conditions and countermeasures of Yunnan plateau lakes,etc.Associated with Perspective research of the highland lakes' Sustainable Development,We proposed the concept of integration of the literature and the results of the research group on the basis of extensive research and sort out their characteristics,scope of the study among the lakes and symbiotic interaction with the city incorporated,proposed the concept of highland city of lakes,which will help set the scope of the study.Secondly,Using of OOPP(Objective Oriented Project Planning)and AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process)method to get the Index System and weights of the ability of lakes Sustainable Development of highland urban Lake District.From the Situations and problems departure of the ability of sustainable development of highland urban Lake District,we grasp and consider the wishes of the stakeholders on the basis and make the research.According to the process of List of Issues-Finding the key issues-The Problem Tree Establishment-The Target Tree Establishment-Project Grouping-Index System Establishment,we conduct a comprehensive sort of development and define the key indicators to determine the impact of capacity-building.(AHP)Analytic Hierarchy Process is given in combination accounted for the main indicators index weight,we draw weight indicator system and the establishment of standards can play a demonstration effect.Thirdly,we establish the SD(system dynamics)model of sustainable development of highland urban Lake District from the perspective of system dynamics.According to the current situation and problems of the Lake District and combining research results we get in the investigations,we establish a causal relationship and variable type of the capacity-building for sustainable development.In a clear relationship between the variables type and quantity,we use system dynamics software VensimPLE establish a flow chart of the various subsystems and the total flow chart system.From a sustainable development of the "development degree","continuous degree",and "coordination degree",we improved calculation of capacity for sustainable development.Combined index system weight and system model,we simulate different parameter values of each year of the ability and performed score calculation.Based on the process of Building the index system-Making clear indicator Relations-Seeking value by dates,we find a new way of building ability of lakes Sustainable Development of highland urban Lake District.This study providesideas of sustainable development Process and evolution for other lakes.Fourthly,we verify the effectiveness of the system model of sustainable development of highland urban Lake District and the scientific of the evaluation system through empirical research of the Erhai Lake.Using Almanac data and data from local economic development report and inputting them in the model to test it's consistency,structured and effective sensitivity.When passed the test in the system,we input the dates to derived indicators of sustainable development in the coming time in the normal state changes of the Erhai lake and get it's capacity.Through the same way,we make experiments of water resources and the whole system with different system designs of sustainable development programs and do comparative analysis continuously.With the simulation results,we can prefer the best programs.Research results show that the total water demand of the Lake District in 2000 to be 5.6 billion square and 9.4 billion square in 2030's.Water stress level of Erhai Lake will increase from 30 billion cubic meters in 2010 to 60 billion cubic meters in 2030;the urban population will be 22.3404 million from 2010 year to 34.8424 million in 2030.Depending on the model and program design,we had drawn the best programs of Lakes sustainable development.The study found Erhai Lake is in a advanced position in the development of the state.The protection of water quality is the key factor of influencing the ability of sustainable development of highland urban lake district.Data support and program design can provide a scientific basis for Lakes capacity building for sustainable development,provide research ideas,models and variables relations framework for other Lakes.Fifthly,summary countermeasures and suggestions of sustainable development of highland urban lake district on the basis of experience of Erhai Lake.Combined with the state and problems in the development,Using the SD software to simulate the whole model in years based on the use of each state and the sustainable development indicators of Erhai Lake.By the collection of a large number of file information books,several research experience,we give out good experiences of Erhai Lake with it 's excellent state of sustainable development.It is worth nationwide Lakes learning from.Specific embodiments and suggestions presented to the ability construction of sustainable development of highland urban Lake District on the basis of simulations and experiments of Erhai district system. |
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