A Computational Model Of Improvisational Decision-making For Extreme Event Emergency Management

Improvisation is a process of decision-making in which people intuitively create a decision plan under limited time and resources.Researchers have suggested that improvisation should be adopted to introduce flexibility into extreme-event decision making.There have been some computational methods of improvisational decisionmaking,however they lack a scientific explanation of the cognitive process;on the other hand,because of the lack of formal model of improvisational decision-making,it is difficult to apply this cognitive process of decision-making into practice.In order to develop a well-designed intelligent decision-support system engaging in improvisation,the following three studies have been carried out.1.A general descriptive model of Improvisational decision-making on the foundation of ecological rationality is built.The proposed model is not only able to describe the cognitive process of improvisation,but also can explain emergency decisionmaking and decision-making under risk processes of human beings.2.A formal model of Improvisational decision-making based on Non-Axiomatic Logic(NAL)is proposed.The proposed formal model can guarantee the assumption of model 1 to be formulated in NAL,with various kinds of inference methods.3.Based on the above formal model,a unified computational model of improvisational decision-making is designed and implemented.This model gives a unified knowledge representation,reasoning,and learning mechanism for an intelligent decision support system.The proposed computational model of improvisational decision-making provides a descriptive and formal model for improvisational decision-making,thus providing a theoretical basic for intelligent decision support systems engaging in improvisation,and a viable solution for the cognitive process of improvisation which is applied in practice.