Ethnic Minorities’ Demographic Politics And Construction Of Foreign Policy In The United States After The Cold War

The demographic change is a topic of great concern to political and academic circles in the United States at present.The core reason for this is the expansion of the U.S.ethnic minorities’ population,the irreversibility of the adjustment of the U.S.ethnic groups’ structure and their far-reaching influence on the direction of the development of the U.S.national governance.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the interactive relationship between the ethnic minorities’demographic politics and the construction of the U.S.foreign policy and its inherent laws,for it is not only an important intersecting and front subject in the science of the U.S.ethnic minorities’ demographic politics and in the science of the U.S.diplomacy,but also of great significance to the judge of the trend of the U.S.diplomacy in the medium and long term.Ethnic minorities are important non-state actors that influence the construction of the U.S.foreign policy.Through domestic politics and transnational relationship,and relying on the the interaction between ethnic minorities’ demographic power and the construction of the U.S.national strength,the interaction between ethnic minorities and the U.S.international migration cooperation governance,the interaction between ethnic minorities’ diplomatic intervention and the U.S.foreign policy making,ethnic minorities have been playing an increasingly important role in the formation of the U.S.foreign policy and its characteristics.As the dominant force in promoting the U.S.demographic change,it is visible and verifiable of the U.S.ethnic minorities’ historical,comprehensive and transformative influence on the status quo and long-term development of the U.S.foreign policy.Firstly,from the point of view of changes in the population system,ethnic minorities are the stabilizers for the United States to maintain national strength.Ethnic minorities’ population size and demographic structure are the key variables affecting the U.S.strength position in the international system.Secondly,ethnic minorities’ diplomatic intervention activities in the United States are constrained by factors from the international system level,the national unit level,and the subnational unit level.Among these,being able to form an effective election political threat is an extremely important variable for ethnic minorities to influence the U.S.foreign policy making.Thirdly,in the medium and long term,ethnic minorities affect the U.S.national security,foreign policy making and foreign relations in the way of qualitative change to quantitative change.Meanwhile,ethnic minorities and the non-Hispanic Whites will form a tension relationship around the dominance of the construction of the U.S.foreign policy.In this process,ethnic minorities’ power to control key diplomatic resources will become relatively greater,and the non-Hispanic whites’power to control key diplomatic resources through bureaucracy system will be relatively reduced.The game between the ethnic minorities and the non-Hispanic whites is an infinite repeated game.Fourthly,the diplomatic nature of the U.S.immigration reform and immigration policy making has become an important factor affecting the international migration governance of ethnic minorities in the United States.Fifthly,as important non-sate actors influencing the construction of the U.S.foreign policy,the positive influence of ethnic minorities’ diplomatic intervention on the U.S.national interest has exceeded the negative influence.As far as the medium and long term shift of the U.S.diplomatic strategy is concerned,the ethnic minorities’ influence is mainly manifested in the following aspects.Firstly,on the whole,the ethnic minorities’ diplomatic intervention is conducive to the realization and expansion of the U.S.national interests,and in the future,the United States is able to use even more ethnic resources to achieve foreign policy goals indirectly.Secondly,the preconditions for ethnic minorities to affect foreign policy making are continuously optimized.As the U.S.ethnic groups’structure continues to change profoundly,the intersecting trend between domestic affairs and diplomatic issues will become even more evident.Thirdly,the long-term diplomatic strategy of the United States will place greater emphasis on the "soft power" or "smart power" model than before.On the one hand,the resources input stemming from the welfare system construction related to ethnic minorities will limit the U.S.military and security resources input to a certain extent.On the other hand,the rise of ethnic minorities’ number in the U.S.diplomatic working team and the enhancement of ethnic minorities’ political discourse have continuously expanded the practical space for multicultural diplomacy.Fourthly,the diplomatic nature of immigration issues will become more apparent than before.Illegal immigration governance will become an important issue of international relations between the United States and Latin American countries.Fifthly,the strategic culture of the United States will undergo a slow but profound change under the influence of the ethnic minorities’ demographic politics.There is a qualitative difference between ethnic minorities and the non-Hispanic whites in the value system.Ethnic minorities will not follow the line of "militarism" in their means of achieving strategic goals,and will pay more attention to the role of multilateralism,negotiation and communication,which will gradually change the strategic culture of the United States.The influence of the U.S.ethnic minorities’ demographic changes on the U.S.national governance system is comprehensive and far-reaching.As for China,recognizing these fundamental and long-term changes is conducive to draw on advantages,avoid disadvantages,adapt to the U.S.possible policy and strategic changes,and to seize the opportunity and push forward sound and healthy China-U.S.Relations.For the moment,the following aspects are particularly noteworthy.Firstly,the ethnic minorities’ population growth has enabled the United States to maintain a scientific demographic structure that will not face the problem of labor shortage in the medium and long term.For China,a pressing issue at present is to strengthen the research of population development strategy so as to ensure demographic security.Secondly,the U.S.ethnic minorities’ population growth and their rise in socioeconomic status will undoubtedly enhance the discourse of Hispanic Americans,Asian Americans and African Americans in spheres of election politics and public policy making.It is a topic worth studying seriously that how to make the best use of the political and economic resources of Chinese Americans,the largest ethnic group in Asian Americans,to promote the common interests between China and the United States and serve to establish strategic mutual trust between the two countries.Thirdly,it should be considered seriously whether the United States will enter a long period of strategic contraction.The "Latin Americanization" and "Asianization" brought about by the ethnic minorities’ population growth and the change of the U.S.ethnic groups’structure have exposed the United States to a series of mid-term and long-term reform challenges,which adds uncertainties to the future development of the United States and its internal and external strategies.Meanwhile,the possibility of the United States entering a long period of strategic contraction provides a window of opportunity for China and the United States to get across "Thucydides Trap".Fourthly,it is necessary to take the U.S.demographic change as an important endogenous variable that will affect China-U.S.relations in the future.In the era of globalization,the interest demands of the national population will ultimately be directly or indirectly reflected in the national interests and national behavior.Therefore,China should exchange actively with the U.S.ethnic minority groups at the sub-national unit level.