Research On The Road Network State Evaluation And Emergency Guarantee Under Major Natural Disaster Environment

The disaster events occurred frequently in recent years in all over the world and it’s not only a test to the emergency of the governments and the local function department,but also set a still higher demand to the road traffic system.In the five forms of transportation,road traffic is the most widely used by public in the means of transportation.It has significant disaster vulnerability and it is often the weakest link of evacuation and rescue.Under the environment of major natural disaster,the primary task is to insure the safety and smooth of the emergency service and disaster relief.Rapid and effective emergency traffic organization can significantly reduce the loss of life and property and reduce the disaster losses to a minimum.The paper takes the road network under the environment of a wide range of major natural disasters as the object and comprehensive use the information of multimodal transport,multi-scale network information of the road and the information of the nature and severity of the disaster.Focusing on the following:(1)Emergency evacuation road network connectivity reliability model.Based on the analysis of the connectivity,by using the rule of dumping dominant direction to study its effect on post-earthquake evacuation road network connectivity and relation model.Introduce the seismological research achievements of the action of dumping probability estimation model and dumping range of influence coefficient under the condition of building damage.Combine the seismological research and theory of traffic and put forward a post-earthquake evacuation network connectivity correction model and a connected degree assessment procedure of the damage of road is given in this paper.(2)Emergency traffic control area determination method based on reliability analysis.In the emergency evacuation road network connectivity reliability based on the results of calculation,secondary development of transModerler traffic simulation tools,add emergency evacuation time calculation module and traffic capacity conversion module,make it adapt to the environment hazard.Set up the relational model based on emergency simulation the network connectivity reliability of road network density and emergency traffic control,for a specific disaster environment,determine the emergency traffic control area at a reasonable per capita road network density.(3)Prediction of road network traffic and traffic operation situation under the environment of major natural disasters.Proposing a short-time traffic flow prediction model based on the phase space reconstruction of the Chaos Theory combining with PLR and making contrast verification to the model prediction results by using the measured data.Pearson correlation coefficient clustering method is used to repair the missing data of road network.First completed the influence traffic status analysis of traffic flow parameters.On this basis,build a multi-angle and multimode traffic state initial variable set,using the method of random forest screened for traffic state sensitivity strong key variables,and build the combination kernel function relevance vector machine model.Realizing the network of road traffic environment assessment,and according to the crowded highway mileage rate for the evaluation of road network.(4)Model of phased cooperative emergency resource scheduling in freeway.The allocation and scheduling of freeway rescue resources is an important part of emergency rescue.Optimize the allocation of resources can save resources,avoid waste and phased resource scheduling can improve the rescue efficiency,reduce the cost of rescue.With the purpose of using the minimum total resource allocations makes abstract processing to the highway network and construct the emergency resource allocation optimization model.On this basis,put forward the collaboration stage of resource scheduling model.Finally,make real example analysis and validation of the model by using the software MATLAB and LINGO.(5)Emergency traffic guidance path planning method under disaster environment.In the aspect of the emergency traffic evacuation route optimization technology,analyses the particularity of route choice behavior of the drivers under disaster environment.Consider the routes complexity and the evacuation time and establish the double objective emergency evacuation route optimization model.According to emergency transportation rescue route optimization problem,According to emergency transportation rescue route optimization problem,starting from the actual demand of disaster relief,according to the network connectivity reliability,traffic flow theory of traffic-speed relations,the model is established.In short,this paper starting from the existing problems of emergency traffic management system in our country,it made systematic and scientific research on the road network state evaluation and emergency guarantee under major natural disasters environment,and the method proposed in this paper were made to simulation analysis and verification work.The achievements of the research,on the one hand,can provide certain technical reserves for the emergency security technology research and development under major disasters in our country,it is convenient to track and surpass the advanced world level,on the other hand,it has a certain reference value to the relevant areas such as the road network state evaluation in the ITS(Intelligent transportation system),the determination of the traffic control areas.