Research On Product Forecasting Based On Patent Analysis And Technology Evolution Theory

The past development model of Chinese manufacturing industry was mainly driven by factors,especially by factors like demographic dividend and investment.However,in the most recent a few years,it can be seen that Chinese manufacturing industry is facing pressures from both internal and external sides.The expected way-out of the current manufacturing industry relies on innovation,especially on technical innovation,to support changes in the products and quality of companies.Companies in China,especially manufacturing companies,has realized that innovation is the primary driving force for development.Some of the companies invest certain amount of funds and resources for technical innovation and product R&D,but mostly have not taken a holistic view of product evolution and development.There are still problems such as the blind pursuit of new technologies and new directions.The actual success rate of new product development is not high.Many companies lack of forecast and planning of its products,therefore lose market opportunities and become followers in the industry.In order to forecast and plan future products,this article analyzes the difference of technological development properties and technical innovation activities,and conducts in-depth research on product development forecast,product innovation model,and product innovation processes,based on patent analysis and TRIZ technology innovation theory.This article mainly carries out researches on the following aspects:(1)Establish technical system and efficiency matrix of productThe components in the engineering system are identified through component analysis,the interactions between the components are found through interaction analysis.The functional model of the engineering system is established.Through technical decomposition of various products,the key technical points and key technical components can be found.Patent searches are performed on common functional components.In the search process,different search formulas are used to download and analyze the retrieved patents,and the results are recorded in the form,and an efficacy matrix map is created based on the common components.Through the analysis of the efficiency matrix map,the main hotspot efficacy is discovered,the potentials for innovation and research and development of great value in certain technical directions are found.Enterprises can formulate targeted R&D strategies accordingly,and avoid existing technical risks.Innovations in sparsely populated and blank technical areas can overcome technical bottlenecks and enable the company to become leaders in new technologies.(2)Establish product innovation modelIn the process of innovative product R&D decision-making,according to different innovation methods and evolution methods depending on the stage of technology level in the technology system,enterprises can be mainly divided into the incremental innovation and the breakthrough innovation.The incremental innovation model is mainly applied when the technical system has not yet reached its limit.When the technical system has not yet entered its mature stage,it is possible to forecast its maturity and understand its position in the S curve.According to the stage of the technical life cycle of the technical system,the future development strategy can be determined.This article takes the LED light source as an example.The breakthrough innovation model mainly applies to the technical system that has reached its limit,and its life cycle is in the mature period or recession period.According to the changes in the number of patents in different years,a 3D patent efficiency matrix diagram can be drawn.According to patent application data analysis,consumer demand investigation,technical evolution process of key components and phylogenetic tree synthesis guidance,choose the future evolution path and direction,to guide innovative product design.This article takes LED lens,LED light conductive panel,and lighting control technology as examples to conduct research.(3)Product innovation design based on evolutionary theoryIn order to further validate the effectiveness of the innovation model,further case studies are conducted through product innovation.According to the previous research results and models,LED panel lights,smart LED chandeliers,smart LED desk lamps and other products have been designed through the tree of different LED components.The industrialization of the designed product with enterprises finally passed these products to the market to verify the validity of the product forecast.This article conducts research based on patent and technology forecasting methods,and has established an actual practical innovation model,which is consistent with the theoretical research and practical operation results.The research results of this paper provide theoretical basis and guidance for product development and design in various industries as well as product innovation paths and methods.