Cooperation And Dispute Over Lancang-Mekong Water Resources Development (1957-2016)

The competition for natural resources has become a part of geo-political game. Mekong River is one of the 15 important international rivers flowing through China. Mekong water resources cooperative management, which was originated in 1950s, was regarded as one of the most successful transboundary water resources management in the third world. Although the riparian countries’diplomatic relations were broken off in the Cold War and Cambodian Civil War, the water diplomacy was never broken off with the Mekong cooperation regime’s evolution.Mekong basin’s hydrologic system and ecologic system have remained dynamic equilibrium for thousands of years. However, the accumulated impact of mainstream and tributary dams has been changing the basin’s basic character since 1990s, which not only influences the natural ecologic system, but also the social and economic system. Currently, the competition for water resources in the Mekong basin is not as strong as that in the Nile basin and Jordan Basin which are short of water, and the main actor involved in the conflict is social society, not nations. However, Mekong River’s integrated ecology is threatened by the massive water resources development. Thousands square kilometers forest and farm land will be inundated, hundred thousands of local people will be resettled, and the fish migration will be hindered according to the lower Mekong’s cascade dam plan. The impacted riparian countries’ fishing security and food security will be in danger, and the relations between the countries will be strained.This dissertation is trying to systematically retrospect the Mekong River’s development history from 1957 (in which year the Committee for the Coordination of Investigations of the Lower Mekong was set up)to 2016 (in which year the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation initiated by China was set up) to probe into the motivation hidden behind the Mekong water resources cooperation and conflict, to analyze the achievements and shortages of current cooperation mechanism and dispute coordination mechanism, and to find the possible strategic way for China’s involvement into Lancang-Mekong whole basin water resources cooperative management. The first three chapters retrospect how the Mekong regime evolved itself to adapt to the change of Mekong district’s political situation. Chapter four discusses the disputes come to the fore with the massive dam development after the Cold War and analyzes the factors behind the disputes and the current dispute-coordination mechanism. Chapter five especially discusses the dispute caused by Lancang River’s development and China’s cooperative response, and points out the challenges that China will face in the basin’s water resources cooperative management. Chapter six discusses the United States and Japan’s long period involvement in the Mekong development, which is an unavoidable challenge for China’s involvement in the Lancang-Mekong water resources management.Upon the six chapters, this dissertation has drawn the following conclusions:1. During the process of Lancang-Mekong water resources development, the disputes between the riparian countries always exist and the mainstream development plan especially upgraded their conflict. However, the cooperation is always the main tendency, which is due to the riparian countries’aspiration to develop their economy and give priority to regional economic and trade cooperation and national economic development, the pursuing for economic profit is currently overwhelming the intense caused by the water resources development; 2. Without China and Burma’s involvement, the Mekong River Commission regime is not able to realize the whole basin’s good governance. In the long term, a management regime covering the Lancang-Mekong whole basin is needed to be built. Lancang-Mekong Cooperation, a new cooperation mechanism initiated by China and launched by six riparian countries, became an expected cooperation and dialogue platform for realizing the whole basin’s integrated management; 3. As a great power in the region, China should bring positive energy to the development of Lancang-Mekong basin. The cooperation should be gradually improved, firstly sharing information on technical level, then holding regular discussion on governmental level, finally develop a whole basin’s valid management frame, fairly and reasonably distribute water among the riparian countries and hydropower profits among all the stake holders and minimize the impact to environment, society and culture; 4. Transboundary river development is not only the matter about water. China’s development on upper Lancang River and Chinese enterprises involvement in the lower Mekong River development, was linked to the South China Sea dispute. To some extent, the lower riparian countries worry about China’s increasing influence in the Great Mekong Subregion. Some countries think that the further involvement of other great powers such as the United States, Japan and India is helpful to balance China’s influence. In a sense, the Great Mekong Subregion has become a competitive battlefield of great powers, which increases the difficulty of water resources cooperative management among the riparian countries.Based on the aboved analysis, this dissertation uses "trade-off" theory and suggests that China set up a series of interest relations with lower countries in the fields of flood-control, irrigation, navigation and hydro-power development so as to eliminate the lower countries’alert through broad and deep cooperation and realize each riparian country’s demand. What’s more, this dissertation transforms the Hegemonic Stability Theory into Great Power Responsibility Theory and Great Power Cooperation Theory, suggesting that China should play the role of a responsible upper riparian country, setting up China-led project access mechanism through Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and improving China’s image in the subregion and then gradually improving the cooperation level in the transboundary water resources management.