Study On The Problem Of Unconceived Alternatives

Unconceived theories that empirically equivalent to existing theories give rise to the underdetermination of scientific theory by evidence, so we cannot decide how to choose theory only by the existing observation evidence. Duhem and Quine believe that underdetermination roots in holism, and we can conceive empirically equivalent totality of theory by adjusting the existing totality of science. Von Fraassen and Kukla think that Without the aid of the holism,we can also conceive potential theories directly by means of global and local algorithms. However, Laudan and Leplin criticize the permanency and the epistemological equivalence of potential theories'empirical equivalence. They believe that the presupposed potential theories are only parasitic theories. Kyle Stanford consider that underdetermination is Descartes' skepticism,because empirically equivalent potential or unconceived theories are all pseudo theories that cannot be approved or selected by scientific community.Lawrence Sklar proposes that unborn but better hypotheses give rise to transient underdetermination. Stanford further proposes the problem of unconceived alternatives. He suggests that we cannot determine to choose even the best scientific theory that we already have in response to existing evidence, because there are probably equally well confirmed alternatives to our best scientific theories that will be confirmed by new evidence, and will be accepted and selected by scientific community in the future. These alternatives will be strong rivals to theories on hand,but they are presently unconceived by us. Stanford believes that this problem is derived from the limitation of eliminative inference which is used for proposing and selecting theory. Roush puts forward similar philosophical problem: the problem of catch-all. But Stanford emphasizes that the applicable field of the problem of unconceived alternatives is fundamental theoretical science, including physics,biology, etc., not only high-level theory as Roush said or cosmology referred to Sklar.Stanford proposes new induction over the history of science and makes case study to support his point of view. He believes that scientists repeatedly cannot conceive the theories that were well confirmed by the new evidence. These alternatives were equally available to choose at the time, but unconceived by scientists because of lack of imagination. So,New induction makes further development on pessimistic induction. By virtue of instrumentalism,Stanford points out that scientific realists' convergent realism about the continuity of theory structure,reference and theory description manages to achieve only pyrrhic victories, invites yet a renewed pessimistic induction over the history of science.Realists such as Peter Godfrey-Smith have a range of objections to the problem of unconceived alternatives, they consider that this problem will not threaten scientific realism, and scientific community would not accept unconceived alternatives in the prevailing context, because members of scientific community had improved their capacity to find such alternatives. Stanford replied to realists that they appeal to selective confirm some parts of theory only to offer new cases for the problem of unconceived alternatives, instead, scientists will fall into this problem more easily because of existing scientific research system.But Stanford merely emphasizes the diffence between unconceived alternatives and existing theories,he despises the continuity and progress of theory in its development. So, he actually cancels the necessity of theory comparison, denies the possibility of predicting the unconceived theoretical elements. Concert theory provides several rationality indexes to comparative evaluate the concert force of theories. By concert theory, and on the premise of admitting the problem of unconceived alternatives, we can reasonably conceive tool theory and penetrable solutions in a succession of theories, by means of analyzing the local and synthetic concert force of exciting theories.