Study On The Development And Risk Management Of Live Pig Industry In Hunan

Hunan is a big province of live pig industry, which is an important source of national income of the province. Risk management is a critical problem that influences the sustainable development of Hunan live pig industry. This paper systematically studies the development and risk management of Hunan live pig industry, adopting the basic framework of "risk identification-risk assessment-risk control", applying multiple research methods and combining quantitative research and qualitative research. The practice of long-term job in the countryside of the author is combined as well. The major research work and innovation include:(1) The theoretical basis of the development and risk management of Hunan live pig industry is revealed. The livestock production theory can provide specialized knowledge and fundamental clues for the development and risk management of live pig industry. Risk society theory believes that modern society is a risk society and the risk itself probably stems from any field of the society, which is the macro background of risk management of live pig industry. Risk management theory provides a basic action framework for risk management of live pig industry. The framework includes three links:risk identification, risk assessment and risk control. Furthermore, system theory can provide methodological guidance for the risk management of live pig industry.(2) The development status of Hunan live pig industry is described and its output is predicted. The development status and existing problems of live pig industry at home and abroad is analyzed in the paper, in particular the breed distribution, geographic distribution, production modes and advantages and disadvantages of the development of Hunan live pig industry is analyzed in detail. Applying grey prediction model, the output of live pig of Hunan and the whole country in the coming years is predicted. The results indicate that the output of Hunan live pig industry presents volatility but a trend of sustained growth.(3) The types of risks of Hunan live pig industry is recognized and analyzed, and an integrated risk identification index system of live pig industry is constructed. The causes of pork quality and safety risk, environment risk, market risk and catastrophe risk, as well as typical risk events of Hunan live pig industry are analyzed in detail in the paper. By Delphi method and Literature Analysis, the risk assessment index system of Hunan live pig industry is preliminarily determined. By expert investigation method, the final assessment index system is determined.(4) The safety of Hunan live pig industry is evaluated through multiple methods and its market risk is empirically assessed. The results of analytic hierarchy process indicate:within four types of risks, pork quality and safety risk accounts for the biggest weight and environment risk accounts for the smallest. Compared with distributed production mode, scale production mode is riskier. In addition, through investigation of probability of occurrence of19basic risk events and calculation by minimal cutest model, the probability of occurrence of live pig risk events and probability importance of each basic risk events are concluded. Based on the preference for index language, multi-criteria decision-making method can be also applied to qualitatively evaluate the risks of Hunan live pig industry in different production modes. Finally, according to the market risk data of Hunan live pig industry since the year of2000, the live pig market risk is assessed with mathematical model. The results demonstrate that there are positive high risk years, positive general risk years, risk-free years, negative general risk years and negative high risk years in Hunan live pig market risks.(5) A qualitative analysis is conducted on the risk control of Hunan live pig industry and policy suggestion for improving risk prevention and control ability of Hunan live pig industry is put forward. A series of measures of risk factor control are proposed:implementing HACCP system in the production process of live pig and pork products; enhancing monitoring and guidance in the aspects of breeding site selection, anti-pollution facility construction and manure comprehensive utilization; implementing policy compensation, building hog futures system and providing information warning service; strengthening the construction and improvement of live pig insurance system, disease prevention and control system. In the meantime, safeguard measures are also proposed to improve the risk prevention and control ability of Hunan live pig industry from aspects of concept changing, technological innovation, industry upgrading, construction and improvement of safeguard mechanism.