Study On Online Public Opinion Analysis Oriented Public Crisis Pre-warning

With the propelling of information revolution in the end of the20th century, modern network technique has been widely applied and popularized, and online public media, as the fourth kind of communication media for public opinion after newspaper, broadcast and television, has gradually received attention and entered into the mainstream society’s viewpoint for the role of new channel for the collection of public information and distributing centre of public opinion. Especially in the recent years, with the progressive increase of the quantity of Chinese netizens year by year, more and more netizens use Internet to express their interest appeal, abreact their emotion, participate public affairs, and all kinds of social contradictions producing in the social transformation period are always focusing on the online public platform to form powerful public opinion field at the first time. Meanwhile, the strong characteristics of openness, rapid spread and interaction for Internet make some simple and controllable public opinion incidents in the traditional communication channels and opinion environment turn to unexpected group events and trigger social public crisis, which bring huge pressure and challenge to public administration.As an important function for public administration, online public opinion crisis pre-warning has been paid extensive attention by the public, and the relevant mechanism construction and technical system development has proceeded one after another, governments at all levels pay more attention to the monitoring and pre-warning of public opinion. However, the analysis and judging of online public opinion, as the key link of crisis pre-warning processes, whose relevant research and practice falls behind the practical demand for public crisis pre-warning under web2.0environment, and can’t provide automatic, intelligent and real-time crisis pre-warning support to current dynamic and interactive online public opinion from the aspects of analysis methods and technical support. In this context, using current technical means and disciplinary methods to innovate methods and technology of online public opinion analysis to provide technical guarantee for crisis pre-warning has important practical significance for maintaining social stability and propelling social transformation.This paper starts from the above reality, taking online public opinion as research object, teasing the former scholars’research achievement as the research basis, combining online public opinion analysis and the target of public crisis pre-warning, and using the theory and methods of information analysis, natural language processing, artificial intelligence, data mining, crisis management, journalism and communication, etc to study the theory, methodology, technology and application of online public opinion analysis from various aspects and levels. The paper includes seven parts, and the main idea of every part lists as the following:(1) IntroductionIn this part, the author introduces the background and research objective of this paper, and teases the research status relevant to this paper to establish the theoretical basis for the follow-up study.(2) Study on the online public opinion in public crisisIn this part, the paper starts from analyzing the connotation of crisis and public crisis, discussing the characteristics and development tendency of current public crisis. Meanwhile, the paper dissects the material sources, concept connotation, characteristics representation, content expression, spread and evolution rule of online public opinion, and takes Deng yujiao event as an example to analyze the spread and evolvement rule of online public opinion.(3) The construction of analysis framework of online public opinion oriented public crisis pre-warningIn this part, the paper starts from analyzing the rigorous status of public crisis pre-warning for online public opinion, demonstrating the necessity and realistic demand. Meanwhile, it analyzes the processes and functions of public crisis pre-warning, constructing the analysis framework of online public opinion oriented public crisis pre-warning, which constituting information sources layer, technical support layer, analysis method layer, analysis pattern layer, analysis and application layer, covering all the aspects of online public opinion analysis from technical aspect to methodological aspect. In the respective of online public opinion analysis processes, the paper learns from the traditional information analysis processes and puts forward the analysis processes including theme planning, information collecting, information preprocessing, information analysis and crisis per-warning and processing, and expounds the analysis demands and principles. In the end, the paper demonstrates the relevant technologies of online public opinion analysis, taking natural language processing, information collection and feature extraction, semantic mining, text orientation analysis, etc as key technologies to provide technical support for the implement of analytical method and establishment of technology system.(4) Study on the analysis methods of online public opinion oriented public crisis pre-warningIn this part, the paper mainly discusses the methodology of online public opinion analysis. First, the paper briefly introduces various important methods using in online public opinion analysis and constructs the method system of online public opinion analysis. Then the paper demonstrates content analysis method, webometrics method, and intelligent analysis method relevant to online public opinion analysis in detail. Content analysis and webometrics are the general scientific methods using in social sciences research, and still suitable for analyzing online public opinion. As to intelligent analysis method, the paper puts forward two different kinds of intelligent analysis methods based on different technologies, one is based on web mining, and another is based on semantic analysis. The analysis method based on web mining is the new application of data mining in online public information analysis, focusing on discovering online public opinion law from the content of web texts, the structure of web links and the usage records of website, including such methods as web text mining, topic clustering, link mining and social online public analysis, and it has become the mainstream method for opinion analysis. The analysis method based on semantic focuses on discovering opinion law from the semantic layer assisted by analyzing the latent semantic structure in web text or ontology and semantic dictionary, including latent semantic analysis and semantic analysis based on external semantic knowledge, etc.(5) Study on the analysis patterns of online public opinion oriented public crisis pre-warningIn this part, the paper takes four key opinion elements acting in public crisis pre-warning as analysis object, discussing the main analysis patterns from the aspects of topic discovering, event recognizing, individual netizen analysis and group behaviors analysis. As to the analysis of topic discovering pattern, the paper starts from the processes of topic discovering, discussing the method of topic modeling and developing trend. Then the paper emphasizes on hot topic and sensitive topic, the two key factors of triggering public crisis, and discusses the method of opinion discovering and impact assessing. As to the analysis of event recognizing pattern, the paper discusses the method of extracting the elements of public crisis event. Based on event modeling, the paper analyzes the recognizing processes of emergent event and the assessment of its influence degree and the classification method. As to the analysis pattern of individual netizen, the paper starts from analyzing the constituent and characteristics of netizen in online public opinion crisis, probing how to use text tendency analysis method, link analysis method to analyze the emotion and influence for individual netizen, then discusses the recognizing method for the opinion leader, a special opinion subject in online public opinion crisis. As to the analysis of the behavior characteristics and behavior pattern for Internet population, the paper takes online public community as the main opinion object and analyzes the evolution law and characteristics of the online public community. Meanwhile, the paper discusses the method for recognizing group behavior and predicting their development trend by social online public analysis and trend analysis.(6) Study on application of the online public opinion analysis oriented public crisis pre-warningIn this part, the paper applies the theory of opinion analysis to the practice and introduces an analysis example based on TRS opinion management system. This system is developed by TRS Company, and can finish the work of online public opinion analysis and public crisis pre-warning. Then the paper demonstrates the whole processes for TRS OM to carry out information collection, information pre-processing, intelligent mining and analyzing, pre-warning service providing in detail.(7) Conclusion and further studyIn this part, the author firstly concludes the whole paper from research significance and the finished work. Then, the author introspect the weakness existing in the paper and outlooks the key points for the further research. In the end, the paper states that with more and more domestic and overseas scholars emphasizing the study of online public opinion analysis, the research of online public opinion analysis will welcome a new round of developing climax by the promotion and efforts of the experts and professionals from the fields of computer science, information management, public administration and journalism&communication.This paper has been funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under grant70573082and71073121, the MOE Project of Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences in Universities under grant08JJD870225and Scientific Research Fund of Hunan Provincial Education Department under Grant11C1051.