Travel Route And Departure Time Choice Behavior Based On Rules

Travel behavior analysis is one of the frontiers of transportation science. Thesystem-level properties of transportation emerge from the behaviors of and theinteractions among a large number of individual decision makers. The researches on thetravel behavior analysis are the foundation of diagnosing urban traffic problems andmaking travel demand management policies. Route and departure time choice are theimportant dimensions of travel behavior. Most of the traditional route and departure timechoice behavior analyses are under the hypothesis of specific assumptions that traveler arecompletely rational, they always follow the utility maximization criterion, and seldomconsider bounded rationality in their decision-making.Based on the travel decision-making behavior as the point of research, this paper isintended to build the rule-based route and departure time choice behavior models in theframework of bounded rationality, and introduce the key subjective factors of behavior,such as spatial knowledge acquisition, learning, cognition updating, and alternativesearching. Travel decision-making behavior is analyzed under the restriction of cognitivelimitations. The main research contents are summarized as follows:(1) This paper defines and illustrates subjective factors related to the traveldecision-making process, and provides the research framework for the rule-based travelbehavior analysis.(2) Making comparative analysis between revealed preference and stated preferenceof travel behavior survey method, this paper focuses on the attribute selection andsituation design principle of SP survey. Combined with the specific requirements of routeand departure time choice behavior on survey data, the paper proposes and designs theroute and departure time choice behavior intention survey scheme based on the sequentialorthogonal design.(3) Making the subjective factors, such as the information search, learning, cognitiveupdating and alternative acquisition, related with each other, the paper proposes the route search and choice behavior models based on Ripper-rules. It also puts forward theconcepts of subjective search gain and perceived search cost, and uses these concepts todetermine the starting and ending conditions of alternative acquisition.(4) The paper constructs the route choice behavior model based on regretminimization theory, analyzes the underlying decision-making mechanism within themathematical formulas of regret minimization model and utility maximization model.Combined with the SP survey data of travel route, it also establishes the route choicemodel based on the perfect rationality and bounded rationality decision-making theoryrespectively, and analyzes the different between the estimation results.(5) Taking the rule-based travel behavior analysis framework as the basis foranalyzing departure time choice behavior, the paper proposes the rule-based departuretime choice behavior model, and builds the search and choice model of departure time.The main contributions of this dissertation research are as follows:(1) Under the framework of bounded rationality, this paper proposes the analysistheory framework of rule-based route and departure time choice behavior.(2) The concepts of subjective search gain and perceived search cost are defined, andthe starting and ending rules of expectation based search process are proposed. It alsobuilds the travel choice scheme search process model based on cost-benefit analysis.(3) The paper proposes and designs the route and departure time choice behaviorintention survey scheme based on the sequential orthogonal design, and provides researchfoundation for other rule-based travel behavior survey scheme.(4) The underlying decision-making mechanism within the regret minimizationmodel and utility maximization model are analyzed. The paper explains the difference indecision-making and choice probability.