Heating Load Prediction And Operation Optimization Of District Heating Systems

District heating systems have been widely promoted and applied because of theiradvantages. But the heating energy consumption is very high. The unreasonableoperation regulation method is one of the main causes of this high energyconsumption. The existing problems of district heating systems in the process ofoperation were analyzed in this paper. The operation process of district heatingsystems was deeply optimized. This paper mainly includes the heating load prediction,optimal scheduling of heat source, optimization of heating parameters, and sensitiveanalysis of the optimal results.District heating systems were compared with grey systems. It was found thatheating systems can be regarded as grey systems when studying the heating load.Grey system theory was introduced to predict the heating load in the concreteengineering example. The conventional grey model and metabolism grey model wereboth used to predict the heating load. The results show that the prediction accuracy ofthe metabolism grey model is higher than that of the conventional grey model. Theinfluence of the number of the original data in the prediction model on the predictionaccuracy was analyzed. The results show that the suitable number of the original datain the prediction model can make the prediction accuracy more satisfied. Greycorrelation method was introduced to study the influence of the related parameters onthe heating load in the concrete engineering example. The implementation of heatregulation strategies based on the predictive heating load in the process of operationwas proposed in this paper. Optimization method was used to study the heatproduction process and heat transportation process. From the economic and energyconservation point of view, the mathematical model of the optimal scheduling of heatsources and optimization model of the heat transportation process were establishedrespectively in this paper. The corresponding optimization models were applied to theconcrete engineering examples respectively. Program was complied to solve theoptimization models using MATLAB software. The results about the optimalscheduling of heat sources and optimal operation regulation scheme of the heattransportation process were obtained， which verified the correctness of theoptimization models. The influence of the related parameters on the optimal results was analyzed using the sensitivity analysis method. The major and minor relationshipof the influence of the related parameters on the optimal results was obtained.The operation regulation mode of district heating systems was optimized in thispaper, which includes the heat production process and heat transportation process. Theheat can be supplied according to the heat demand using this optimal operationregulation mode. Energy can be used more effectively so as to reduce the energyconsumption and operation cost using this optimal operation regulation mode.