The Research Of Associated Effects On Guang Dong Goods Price Volatility Based On Network Spread

Presently, The tend of inflation appears again in our country. The report on implement ofmonetary policy in the fourth quarter2012from The People’s Bank of China warns that therisk of inflation expectations should be paid attention to and the input inflationary pressureshould gain precaution. Financial Times from Britain publishes article to propose that everygovernment should prepare and prevent themselves from global inflationary pressure andtakes some steps to keep the inflation under control. These new situation can be discussedfrom the perspective of the correlation of Price volatility, for probing into its rule and processwhen it comes into being. Tactics and proposals to control the price expectations are anurgent issue.In the past，the Scholars studied the associated effects on price fluctuations byinput-output price impact model. Because of the difficulty in demoliting and reorganizatinginput and out-output table, Few researchs were made in studing the associated effects of pricefluctuations on large sample consumer goods. It is necessary to explore a more simple andeffective method to study the associated effects on price volatility, and provide a feasibleresearch tool and the calculation method for the price researchers and government pricecontrol department.The paper studies the Guang Dong correlation effect of price volatility under the anglesof input-output theory and Network Spread. This paper, first of all, studies the correlationeffect of price fluctuation by using price influence model, which are based on input-outputtheory and widely used for in economics.The input-output table for9departments and30kinds of merchandise is set up on the basis of input-output value table of135departments inGuang Dong. On the basis of above steps, The model of price effect in Guang Dong is set upand the correlation effect of price fluctuation is figured out. In order to improve theshortcoming that price influence model in the past can’t take the factors, such as the highlydeveloped market in Guangdong and its deep dependence on foreign trade into consideration,the essay introduces three parameters β,γ,θ in financial management to present the factors,such as relation of market supply and demand, the dependence on export based on anintensive study on export-oriented economy in Guangdong. This paper can improve the price influence model and set up a correlation effect mechanism of price fluctuation under the newcircumstance of changing supply-demand relation and opening-up. What’s more, it conductsthe calculation of correlation effect and relative analysis, which can reflect clearer the realprice fluctuation in Guang Dong under the condition of reform and opening up.To overcome the difficulty of demolition and reorganization input and out-output tablewhen implementing the price influence model to study the correlation effect of pricepunctuation, this paper tries to use the method of Network Spread and project the correlationeffect of price punctuation under price influence model to the network. By building upcorrelation network of price punctuation, exploring the mechanism of price transmission innetwork, setting up price transmission model of network to imitate the correlation effect ofprice punctuation under the price influence model, the paper finds the imitation highlyinosculated. On the basis of above Simulation, the paper expends the network transmissionmodel of price fluctuation to study the correlation effects of240kinds of products’ pricepunctuation and sets up the network price punctuation synthesized transmission model.Besides, the paper also studies the abnormal changes of correlation effect of Consumer goodsprice punctuation before and after the international financial crisis in2008.The following creative fruits are gained in this paper.Firstly, A network price transmission model is set up, which contributes to providingrelatively easy ways for studying the correlation effect of Consumer goods price fluctuation.In the past, the scholars applied the price influence model based on input-output theory tostudy the correlation effect of Consumer goods price punctuation. It’s inevitable that theywould encounter the difficulty in demolition and reorganization input-output table, which hada bad effect on further research. Setting up the network price transmission model to study thecorrelation effect of consumer goods price punctuation can avoid the difficulty in demolitionand reorganization input-output table when studying the price fluctuation effect correlationunder the price influence model. In addition, it can comes up with effective method and newangle in studying the correlation effect of commodity price fluctuation for large sample.Secondly, The paper has studied the Network communication mechanism which isconsistent with the correlation effect of price fluctuation based on input-output priceinfluence model. And it has projected the correlation effect of price fluctuation under price influence model to network, setting up the projection network of correlation effect of pricefluctuation. Based on analyzing the topology properties of projection network, the paperintroduces network transmission method and sets up correlation network of price fluctuationand its propagation equation(i.e. network price transmission mechanism) to simulate thecorrelation effect of price fluctuation under the price influence model through relatedcoefficient among its chronological sequence of commodity price index. It finds that thesimulation enjoys a high goodness of fit. In the process of network price transmissionmechanism, this paper finds firstly the propagation equation and keeps this equation fixed,then Constantly adjusts the network threshold(A corresponding change in the correlationstructure of the network). It’s quite successful in making the correlation effect of commodityprice fluctuation close to the correlation effect under the price influence model through thenetwork transmission simulation and in providing a new way and angle for setting up thenetwork price Propagation mechanism.Finally, The paper improves price influence model in past.The improved price model canreflect the change of supply-demand relation under the reform and opening up, calculates theinterplay influence among the commodity price punctuation. The paper introduces threeparameters β,γ,θ in financial management to present the factors, such as relation of marketsupply and demand, the transmission among prices and the degree of sensitivity onexport,and Calculates the interplay among the commodity price fluctuation under thecircumstance of fierce competition in markets and high dependence on export by theimproved price effect model in Guang Dong. It can make up the study on correlation effect ofprice fluctuation by applying the input-output price model in the past, which can’t reflect theinfluence of the factors such as supply-demand relation and international market.