The Quantitative Analysis And Policy Options Of China’s Macro-control Of The Grain

The grain,which is a major strategic issue,is the basis of China’s economic development,social stability and national security.In the current and next period, China’s grain market willcontinue to undergo profound changes.The grain prices is expected to continue to enhance, withmore exacerbated market volatility.The grain macro-control will face a more complex situation anda more difficult task.In consequence,in this new situation,there is great significance for grainmacro-control study in China to deal with complex and changeable challenges in domestic andinternational environments.At the same time, some researches on this paper contribute to thefurther management of inflation expectations, maintaining steady and rapid economicdevelopment, including grasping the grain control priorities and key, enhancing the relevance andeffectiveness of grain regulation, and stabilizing market expectations to prevent the transactionprice.From grain macro-control system to proceed, using the methods of empirical analysis andnormative analys is, the paper in-depth study the issues as grain macro-control behavior ofeconomic agents, supply and demand forecast, the impact of policies on food supply and prices, thecost efficiency of regulation and its influencing factors.The main research contains six parts, asfollows:(1)The behavior of our country grain macro-control system of and the analysis of influencefactor. Given the" limited rationality" conditions of food market economy main body conflict ofinterest. Currently these conflicts formed a special" hold back grain" phenomenon. Make use of thepanel data of13major grain producing areas between2005-2010to build the model andquantitative analys is. Concluded that Grain price and production cost, and the term" hold backgrain" effect on the stage" hold back grain". The important factors of restricting grain circulationare the grain storage capacity and processing capacity of the main producing areas. Since2004,thepolicy of the" lowest price" and" temporary storage",mobilized farmers to grow grain actively atcertain extent,which increased food supply and ensured food security.But distort prices andaggravate " hold back grain" behavior of main producing areas.(2)China’s grain market supply and demand change and its policy needs about regulation system.Grain supply is split yields and sown area forecast, the demand for grain rations is split feedgrain, seed grain, industrial use of grain and other use of grain and it need to establish short-termtrend of the future of the ARIMA-of GRNN model of grain supply and demand in the forecast. Theprediction results show that: a short-term supply of our grain is no problem, but the lake oflong-term growth power, with China’s grain supply and demand gap is gradually increased, theincreasing pressure to protect the grain supply and demand balance. From the grain demandstructure, seed grain will not increase, rations and feed use are basically able to maintain a steadyand unchanged or an increasing trend at lower speeds, the industrial use of grain is substantialgrowth and become one of the most important part of future grain consumption.(3)Changes in macro-control policies of China’s grain and grain supply. This sectionsummarizes the grain macro-control policies in the calendar year basis, the study, analysis of themain factors affecting grain production, adaptive expectations model based on Nerlove1958years,the use of time-series data of1978-2010years, China’s grain production factors affecting theempirical analysis. Adaptive expectations model gives a short-term effects of agricultural policyand other factors on the area sown to grain, grain farmers grain sown area of3.75years timeadjustment to optimal.Therefore, the policy recommendations: further strengthen the proportion ofagricultural financial expenditure, reduce the intervention of the grain circulation,and furtherreducing farmers’ burdens.(4)The influence of the grain macro-control policies on the grain market’s long-termequilibrium. The chapter studies the micro-regulation of the grain price relatively comprehensivebut superficially from China’s grain price formation mechanism, price fluctuations trends in recentyears, price policy since the reform, and the mechanism that affect the price and the VAR analysisof the price policy. Based on the dual control goal of ensure supply and promote income and steadygrain prices, constructed the grain market price volatility index from the supply side and demandside, concluded that the main objective of the current grain macro-control should continue toensure supply, increase the income of farmers, and decontrol the market further and grain prices aredetermined by the market, for urban low-income people, mainly in the form of social security andincome subsidies. The policy impact effect of soy bean price fluctuation is different from theimpact effect of wheat, rice and corn, should give further consideration into the “market” and“internationalization” of grain, and use more marketing measures to control grain prices, and makefull use of both domestic and foreign markets to protect its supply, stable grain prices. (5) The analysis of the cost, efficiency and effect factor of macro-control of the grain. Fromthe three parts of financial subsidies, reserve throughput, import and export regulation, analyzes thecost structure and establish of the theoretical model of accounting. And then build the efficiencyindex system to determine the indicators including financial subsidies. Then use the CCR modeland the C2GS2model of the DEA method on the empirical analysis of efficiency of macro-controlof the grain, respectively, to calculate the corresponding overall efficiency, technical efficiency,scale efficiency and returns to scale values, and get the conclusion of overall efficiency decreasingof macro-control of the grain. Finally, made the regression analysis about the factors of overallefficiency of macro-control of grain. Therefore, we need to appropriately change the approach toimplement the policy through various means in order to improve the efficiency of policies.(6)The micro impact analysis of our macro-control of grain. The analysis showed that thesample point of farmer evaluation of grain storage level is65.7%, grain storage for143days, andthere are different grain storage ratio and time for different area. With the increased awareness ofthe safety of farmers grain storage and the implementation of the government grain storagesubsidies, the loss rate of famers grain storage is6.09%, which has been greatly decreasedcompared to the previous10%of the survey of the literature. Then, using the quantile regressionmethods to study the influence factors of the farmers’ behavior of grain storage in HeilongjiangProvince.The results showed that: a greater influence factors for the rate and time of farmers grainstorage include per capita net income, household food production, the ratio of food income andtotal household income, grain borrowing and expectations of future prices, while the grain storageloss rate is not significant.The study made the following innovations:Firstly, we built a variable parameters PANEL model to deal the " food hoarding" problem.Use this method, we can make some complex problems to some simple quantitative research.Secondly, we use the method combine with both traditional ARIMA models and neural networkmodel, this method has both the effective use of the learning ability of the neural network modelusing ARIMA-GRNN model for food supply and demand forecasting. Thirdly, the adaptability ofthe the expected model are introduced on food supply, not only econometric analysis of the policyon the long-term effects of the food supply, and also analyzed the farmers grain supply short-termability to adjust, so that more comprehensive and in-depth research. Fourthly, we constructed thefood price volatility index from the demand side and the supply side, especially in the analys is, using the HP filter instead of the coefficient of variation (CV macro-control of grain) method. Theresult is a more scientific and objective because of using this method. Fifthly, efficiency standardsfor quantitative analys is of the cost of the macro-control of grain, obtained using the DEA methodintegrated between the costs and benefits of efficiency, technical efficiency indicators, to comegradually reduce the overall efficiency of conclusions.