The Development Of EMRICES+and Its Simulation Research On China’s Collaborative Reduction Policies

Global climate change has been widely recognized across the world, its impacts to the economy and the environment for human survival has caused many discussions in the academic community. Integrated Assessment Models, as the tool of multidisciplinary integration, are used to assess the effects of climate change on the economy and natural environment. However, the assessments of these IAMs are mostly from the view of global or regional scale, which cannot be refined to a single sector. In addition, IAMs ignored the facts that policy makers would take corresponding environmental protection policies against climate change. One country’s environmental protection policy will affect the global climate change and other economies. More importantly. IAMs. cannot simulate the collaborative reduction effects of different policies. The Expanded Multi-factors Regional Integrated model of Climate and Economy and System in this paper was constructed to evaluate the impacts of the global climate and economy when China takes different environmental tax policies and assess the impacts of global climate change on China’s industrial sectors. This paper also simulates the uncertainties of climate change, specifically on the discount rate, the climate sensitivity, and the total factor productivity growth rate, as well as some policy parameters. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) Under the baseline scenario, developing countries, such as China and India, maintained a relatively high economic growth rate compared to developed countries. The global carbon emissions are increasing. Global atmospheric carbon concentration growes up to562.81ppm by2100, the atmospheric temperature will increase by2.89℃compared to the pre-industrial level.(2)In the scenario when China takes sulfur tax (S+), China’s GDP still keep growing, China’s GDP is projected to be$56.41trillion in2100, which is$7.24trillion less than that in the BAU+scenario. In2093, China’s economy will be surpassed by India. In2100, China’s GDP will account for16.19%of the world economy and become the second largest economy in the world. In2100, the atmospheric carbon concentration would rise up to557.39ppm and the atmospheric temperature would be2.86℃higher than the pre-industrial level. (3)In the scenario when China takes carbon tax, China’s GDP still continues growing and will increase to$59.55trillion by2100, which is$4.10smaller compared to that in the BAU+scenario. In2100, China will become the world’s largest economy and its GDP will account for16.96%of the world economy. India is projected to be second largest economy, its GDP would account for16.82%of the world economy. In2100, the atmospheric carbon concentration would rise up to559.81ppm and the atmospheric temperature would be2.87’C higher than the pre-industrial level.(4) Under the scenario when China takes carbon tax and the sulfur tax at the same time, the nation’s GDP would increase to$52.67trillion in2100, which is$10.98trillion lower than that in the BAU+scenario, and would only account for15.26%of the world’s total economy. India’s GDP would continue to increase and would surpass EU, USA and China in2061,2067and,20.84,separately. In2100, India’s total GDP would reach to$59.26trillion and it would become the world’s biggest economy, accounting for about17.17%of the world’s economy. In2100, the atmospheric carbon concentration would rise up to554.79ppm and the atmospheric temperature would increase2.84℃compared to the pre-industrial level.(5)When the discount rate is0.1%, the cumulative utility value of each country becomes larger, the cumulative utility value of the developing countries, especially lower-income countries, has a greater impact on the discount rate; when the discount rate is3%, the cumulative utility value of each country gets smaller, the cumulative utility value of developing countries, especially lower-income countries, has even greater impact. Cliamte sensiticitu refers to how much atmospheric tempreture would increase compared with compared with the pre-industrial age, when atmospheric carbon concentrations doubles. Different climate sensitivity scenario simulations showed that the higher the climate sensitivity is, the lower the global accumulated utility value is. Compared with the effect of discount rate on global welfare, the effects of climate sensitivity to global welfare are relatively small. The larger the climate sensitivity is, the higher the sea level rise. Taking USA and China as examples, the effects of different technological progress rates on carbon emissions and carbon emissions peak are simulated. The results showed that, for both China and USA, the faster the technological progress is, the larger the carbon emissions are, the later the carbon emissions peak appears. (6) The impacts of different carbon tax policies on China’s economic development and carbon emissions are proportional to the tax levels. The higher the carbon tax is, the more obvious the emission reduction effect is, as is the economic impact. Under25Yuan carbon tax scenario, carbon emissions peak, like the baseline scenario, in2033. Under50Yuan carbon tax scenario, carbon emissions peak appeared in2032. Under100Yuan carbon tax scenario, carbon emissions peak in2031. Different emission reduction scenarios simulation results show that the climate protection goal of2℃can be controlled by2100, but the effects of Stern regime and Nordhaus regime on developing countries’welfare are greater. By comparison, WZW scheme not only can achieve the temperature control target of2℃, but also maintains the economic development of developing countries.