| The global climate change is one of the greatest threats to the human society. Themain cause of the global change is carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Because of theclimate problem increasingly serious, power industry will face challenge carbonemissions constraint. Conventional coal-fired power technology which prevalent in thePower industry today is a typical high carbon power generation technology, theemerging clean power generation technology is low carbon. Obviously, the condition ofcarbon emissions constraint will exert differences influence to investment value ofdifferent power generation technology projects, so the power investors would beconfronted with technology choice problem under the condition.Because the coal-fired power generation technology is dominant technology andcarbon capture and storage(CCS) is the key technology which could reduceconsiderable amount of carbon dioxide emissions caused by coal-fired power generationplants, so the condition of carbon emissions constraint in this dissertation, mainly refersto CCS investment. This research will focus on technology choice problem betweenconventional and emerging coal-fired power technologies, also contrary conventionalcoal-fired to the typical clean power technology on this condition.The dissertation holds that power investment questions are suitable for the RealOptions method analysis and Disruptive Innovation theory could explain questions oftechnology choice very well. So, the author applied the theory of Disruptive Innovationand Real Option to research the topic in this dissertation. The main work and theinnovation results are as follows:First of all, considering the importance of coal technology in power industry, aspecial two stages investment decision options model including PC（Pulverized CoalPower Generation） and CCS also are established in this dissertation, at the same time,the policy-related subsidies considered into the model. By solving the model, the authorinfers the PC and CCS investment rule, subsidy rule under the condition of carbonemissions constraint.Secondly, the conversion rules of producting hydrogen from coal are put forward after invested the CCS technology by IGCC(Integrated Gasification Combined CyclePower Generation) power generation plant. And under the condition of carbonemissions constraints, By comparison with investment value between IGCC and PC, thedissertation argues that investors should choose IGCC.Under the carbon emissions constraint, the typical emerging coal-fired powertechnology IGCC will use the CCS of carbon dioxide capture before-combustion,typical conventional coal-fired technology PC will adopt the CCS of carbon dioxidecapture the post-combustion. To the technologies choice problem between PC andIGCC, relevant option model are established in this dissertation, after the modelsanalyzed，the result is given which the investment value of IGCC would exceed that ofPC, furthermore, after CCS invested, the investor who invested in IGCC may have ahydrogen energy switch option which could motivate the investor to invest in CCSearlier. It is valuable for relevant policy making. Similarly, to the technologies choiceproblem between conventional coal-fired and the typical clean power technology, Basedon the PC technology and the Nuclear power technology as an example, a real optionmodel is built, the simulation results also show that the investment value of Nuclearpower generation would exceed that of PC.Thirdly, Due to the accumulation of different technology to the investors, differenttype investors will not choose the same technology. From the perspective of DisruptiveInnovation, the dissertation insists that the CCS of carbon dioxide capturepost-combustion possess the characteristics of sustaining innovation, the CCS of carbondioxide capture before-combustion and some typical clean power generation technologyis provided with the characteristics of Disruptive Innovation. However, a basicconclusion of Disruptive Innovation theory is: under a certain condition, the investmentvalue of Disruptive Innovation projects may be more valuable than the sustaininginnovation projects. Accordingly to this conclusion, that means, the investment value ofIGCC is more valuable than the PC. The above analysis points out the direction for thepower investors to choose power generation technologies under the restriction of carbonemissions.Finally, aiming at the "Carbon lock" phenomenon for Chinese power generationindustry, the ways of "Carbon unlock" are proposed based on Disruptive Innovation.Chinese power generation industry has been locked in Coal-fired power generation technology. The path to escape Chinese carbon lock-in by technological breakthroughshas always been seriously concerned by each side especially the government. But it isuncertainty which time could get the technological breakthrough innovation, On thecontrary, the unlock path by Disruptive Innovation is much more easy to be ignored.Based on Disruptive Innovation, this dissertation thinks that there are two mainmethods for "carbon unlock" to power industry. The first one is the way that theenterprises would rather to develop more low-carbon electronic consumer productsbased on Disruptive Innovation and form mass market applications. After traditionalelectronics market share dropped by the kinds of innovation, the society could indirectlyreduce the dependence on Coal-fired power plants by the way.Because some clean power generation technologies have the characteristic ofdistributed power generation, it make us could full use of it. So, the other method of"carbon unlock" is that let the investment subject more diversified, investment scalemore elasticity such flexible application methods could accelerate the clean powertechnology diffusion and conduce reducing society reliance on traditional coal-firedpower. It is more suitable for application this kind innovation to the actual situation ofchina，so maybe it would explore a new path for the Chinese society towards a lowcarbon economy by Low-carbon Disruptive Innovation. |
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