The Performance Of Regional Carbon Emissions In China:an Analysis Based On The Perspective Of The Technology Gap

In response to the change of the global climate and the emissions of the carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas, China, the largest country of CO2emissions in the world, not only faces the pressure to reduce emissions from all over the world, but also faces the contradiction between domestic energy resources and ecological environment. Under the double pressure at home and abroad, the Chinese government put forward a target of reducing the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by40-45%by2020comparing with2005. The next question is, how to achieve this target, which become the imminent task for areas in China. However, the pattern of extensive growth has taken a leading position in China for a long time, how to reduce carbon dioxide emissions while maintaining sustained economic growth is critical to the current rapid development of China.Through literature review of carbon dioxide emissions research, it is found that scientific research of carbon dioxide emissions in total factor productivity framework performs the basic foundation of energy conservation and emission reduction policy, and also, it is the basis of further developing and definiting regional emission reduction task. Compared with other countries and regions, there is a big technological gap between regions in our country. China’s long-term extensive development pattern has produced large amounts of carbon dioxide and other gases, which mainly due to the regional differences in energy resources management and technology gap between regions. In order to achieve regional emissions targets and the sustainable development of economy in China, it is necessary to separate the two reasons. Reductions in carbon emissions should be phased in gradually. In view of this, this article is based on the perspective of technology gap, analysis from the following several aspects:China’s provincial carbon emissions measurement, the efficiency and carbon emissions reduction potential of various provinces and cities area, the dynamic change of carbon dioxide emissions performance, macroeconomic factors that influence efficiency of China’s carbon emissions and total factor productivity analysis of various areas in China under the restriction of total factor productivity analysis, etc.Firstly, there is no direct database on carbon dioxide emissions in the national various provinces and cities in our country. So this paper made a relatively accurate estimate of carbon dioxide emissions of30provinces during1997-2010as the panel data set of provincial CO2emissions. And the regional difference of regional carbon emissions across the country and the trend are briefly analyzed. And then by comparing the existing research methods of carbon efficiency, this paper makes an introduction to Metafrontier method and data envelopment analysis (DEA) method, as well as the related indicators variables and data sources.Secondly, taking into account the stylized facts of the imbalance in regional development in China, this article investigated the efficiency of carbon dioxide emissions and emission reduction potential of30provinces and cities across the country from1997to2010in total factor productivity framework from the perspective of the technology gap, which is based on Metafrontier analysis. Research has shown that China’s carbon dioxide emissions efficiency is low overall. Technology gap ratio shows that three areas’technical levels are different significantly:technology of eastern area is the highest and the western region is lowest. Room for improvement of each area’s carbon emission efficiency is varying greatly under Metafrontier, whose difference of each area is smaller under regional frontier.Thirdly, there is great potential of energy saving and emission reduction in various areas in our country, and emissions reduction potential is difference between different provinces and regions. The emission reduction potential in China is composed by the emission reduction potential which is under regional frontier and the technology gap. With the impact of technology gap, emissions reduction potential under regional frontier is lower than that under Metafrontier. Under Metafrontier, the emissions reduction potential of the three regions increases over time. It presents that central region is the fastest-growing part, followed by the eastern region, and the western region is lowest. While under regional frontier, it presents a different pattern that eastern region is the fastest-growing part, followed by the central region, and the western region is lowest. So emission reduction targets should be divided into two phases. The short term aims to improve the performance of carbon emissions in the prior art using regional frontier as a reference. The emission reduction potential of the eastern region is biggest. The key of long term is to reduce regional disparities.Fourthly, in order to further study the China’s regional dynamic evolution process. This paper measures and decomposes the Carbon dioxide emissions performance index of30provinces and cities nationwide from1997to2010under the framework of total factor productivity, and further analyses Chinese regional MMCPI as well as their constituents from the perspective of the technology gap. The main conclusions are:There are significant regional differences of the regional production technical level of China. The technology gap ratio of the eastern part is the highest, which closes to the technology common frontier border, and the technology gap ratio of the Midwest area is the lowest. Overall, the performance of the carbon dioxide emissions could be improved, among which technological advances is the key. Technical efficiency change shows that carbon emissions technology efficiency of the eastern region increases significantly. Scale efficiency change shows that the Midwest area is in the optimal scale of production. While the eastern region tends VRS technology, and the regional technical boundary catch-up effect of the Midwest area is better than the eastern region, which has great potential in improving the performance of carbon dioxide emissions.Fifthly, through the further discussion of the macroeconomic factors that influence carbon dioxide emissions efficiency changes, this paper fulfill the analysis of the external influence factors of carbon emissions efficiency. This article selects the property right structure, energy consumption structure, industrial structure, opening degree, government intervention, level of urbanization and infrastructure construction and other variable for empirical analysis. The result shows that in the various factors nationwide influencing efficiency of carbon dioxide emissions, property right structure, energy consumption structure, industrial structure and government intervention inhibits efficiency of carbon emissions to a certain extent. And foreign trade and urbanization level has significant positive impact. While infrastructure construction is negatively related to the efficiency of carbon emissions, but the effect was not significant.Sixthly, in the factors that influence efficiency of China’s carbon emissions, existing research shows that foreign trade make China become "pollution haven" and produced large amounts of carbon dioxide emissions, thus inhibiting efficiency of China’s carbon emissions. To further validate the relationship between foreign trade and the efficiency of China’s carbon emissions, this article makes an intensive research about whether foreign trade inhibiting efficiency of carbon emissions in China and finds there is an inverted "U" relationship between the import and export trade and the efficiency of carbon emissions among provinces. For most provinces, the import and export trade promotes the efficiency of carbon emissions. With the increasing of import and export trade, the efficiency of carbon emissions increased first and then decreased. If we could make efforts to break the existing pattern of industrial structure, attract foreign capital and advanced technologies. improve the structure of trade, we will reduce the carbon emissions.Seventhly, based on the perspective of the technology gap, we expand the traditional Malmquist-Luenberger Productivity Index, and we make empirical analysis about the total factor productivity under the environmental constraints and its influencing factors in30provinces and cities across the country from1997to2010. The main conclusions are:China’s three regional technology gap is significant and expanding, the eastern region of technology gap ratio is higher than the central region and western region rate which has a gradual downward trend. The total factor productivity of most provinces and cities is improved, technological progress and scale efficiency change is the main driving force of TFP. Technical efficiency needs to be further improved and enhanced between the regions. The central and western regions are behind the eastern region in the pure technology catch-up, but the western region is more likely to form the frontier catch-up.