Designing And Evaluating The Early Implementation Schemes Of Carbon Dioxide Capture And Storage (CCS) In China

With frequent happening of extreme weather events around the world, the globalwarming is increasingly becoming a threat to human beings. So cutting thegreenhouse gas emission has become a global consensus. By International EnergyAgency （IEA）, however, the total CO₂emission volume will reach the peak of30.06billion tones in2010, in which44%came from the burning of coal and oil. At thesame time, in order to prevent the global warming causing catastrophes, we mustmitigate hundreds or even thousands billion tones of CO₂during this century. Butonly depending on the existing technology, the goal is hard to achieve. Faced with thearduous task of mitigation, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）recommended a special technology of carbon dioxide capture and storage （CCS） in2005, which can significantly reduce the CO₂emission. Because CCS can match theexisting energy system, it is getting widespread attention from industrialized countries.In2007, World Wide Fund for Nature （WWF） took CCS as one of the six ways toresponse to the climate change. In2010, the Cancun Climate Conference took CCSinto the Clean Development Mechanism （CDM）. The U.S. and EU countries tookCCS as a part of their future energy strategy and carbon reduction strategy. Besides,these countries have developed a technical plan for CCS and carried out the R&D anddemonstration projects.Though the development of new energy is fast in China, the basic energy structureis difficult to change in the short term. The feature of basic energy structure is theprimary energy is dominated by coal and the secondary energy is dominated bycoal-fire electricity. On the other hand, China’s demand for energy is growing rapidly,especially for fossil fuels. So China has become one of the largest CO₂emissioncountries. Additionally, due to China is the second largest economy, China is highly likely to assume mitigation obligations after2015. So, China is facing greatchallenges in CO₂emission reduction. Giving consideration to abundant coalresources and huge CO₂geological storage potential in our country, many scholarsbelieve that CCS has a good prospect in China. At present CCS projects are givenhigh priority and support by government. However, the technology has yet to reachthe commercialization stage; there are still a lot of uncertainties and controversies forits large-scale implementation. So, how to designing proper implementation schemesand evaluating the schemes, and further helping decision-maker to choose the rightmitigation strategy in―post-Kyoto‖period has very important theoretical and practicalsignificance.This thesis integrated multi-disciplinary theories and methods, such as mineralresources prospecting and exploration, energy economy, petroleum engineering,environmental engineering, to design and evaluate the CCS early implementationschemes. Firstly, this paper summarized the domestic and international study status ofCCS, and then analyzes the strength, weakness, opportunities and potential obstaclesof CCS large-scale developing in China by SWOT analysis. Then, throughcomprehensive analysis of technology maturity and China’s actual situation, this paperdesigned the early implementation schemes of CCS. Based on that, system dynamictheory is introduced to modeling the scheme’s performance and cost. By computersimulation, we got some important index of CCS scheme. After that an MAUTdynamic ranking model and CVaR portfolio optimization model are put forward. Bythese models, the optimal scheme and the optimal portfolio are selected. Finally,according to the evaluation results, some constructive suggestions for China’s CCSdevelopment were proposed.The progresses of this paper gotten are as follows:（1） Based on the maturity of technology and actual status of China, this paperanalyzed the advantages and disadvantages of CCS related technologies, and thendesigned the early implementation schemes of CCS in China.（2） In the guidance of life cycle assessment, this paper constructed a dynamicsystem model of CCS scheme to describe its performance and cost. This model tookthe extra CO₂emission and the extra energy consumption of CCS into account, andfound out the inter-action relationship and feedback mechanisms between theelements of the system.（3） Giving consideration to the influence by decision-maker’s preference andweight on the ranking results, this paper proposed a dynamic MAUT model for CCS scheme ranking. This model can help decision-makers analyzing problem withcomprehensiveness and dynamic.（4） Giving consideration to the uncertainties and the inter play between schemes,this paper put forward a CVaR portfolio model for CCS investment decision-making.This model overcomes the shortage of variance in risk measurement, which can helpdecision-maker to capture the potential losses exceeded threshold. And this modelalso helps decision-maker getting a balance between risk and benefits, achieving goodgoal of mitigation and benefits.