Study On Sudden Floods Emergency Evacuation Reliability

In recent years， floods occurred frequently in China， which caused huge lossesof lives and property. How to make disaster prevention and mitigation attracts theconcern from government departments， experts and scholars. Sudden floodsemergency evacuation as an important topic in the field of disaster prevention andmitigation focuses on strategy of emergency evacuation management， commandscheduling， transportation planning， route optimization， evacuation simulation，analysis of individual and group behavior， etc.， which is lackluster in modeling theemergency evacuation process modeling， the reliability of emergency evacuation，the conflict of vertical emergency evacuation management and horizontalcoordination and communication， the compatibility of emergency evacuationmanagement information platform and other aspects. This paper is based on solvingthe above problems in the following aspects of research:（1）Comparative study of sudden natural disaster emergency management system.Sudden natural disaster emergency management system is an integrated system as aset of human， financial， material and information. Currently， the domestic levelis far behind the foreign countries no matter from a strategic level or a technical levelin emergency management. This paper provides theoretical groundwork for thesudden floods emergency evacuation studies by comparison of the domestic andinternational emergency management system in analyzing， identifying problems，looking for gaps and learning from each other.（2）The IDEF description for the sudden floods emergency evacuation process.Floods emergency evacuation is a complex engineering system. In order to ensure therational and effective emergency evacuation process，this paper molds the emergencyevacuation process by IDEF0and IDEF3， which uses the relation between symbolsto express the logical structure of the emergency evacuation procedures and behavior.It lays the foundation for the reliability evaluation of emergency evacuation systemsthrough a clear emergency evacuation logical relationship between subject and objectby the emergency evacuation behavior analysis.（3）Impact factors analysis of sudden floods emergency evacuation. The impactfactor，which can be used as an emergency evacuation of extraction reliability index，is the basis for the reliability of the study. This paper explores the structure of impact factors of an emergency evacuation with the combination of AHP method whichquantifies the weights of impact factors by the classic idea of human behaviorpatterns B=f(H, M, E,O) with the emergency evacuation process analysis.（4）Reliability evaluation of sudden floods emergency evacuation. This paperconstructs reliability evaluation index system by the reliability impact factors analysisof floods emergency evacuation on the basis of emergency evacuation IDEF0，IDEF3analysis. Combined with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory， it alsoevaluates and makes empirical research on the reliability of emergency evacuationfrom determining the evaluation object domain and reviews set to using series andparallel reliability analysis method.（5）Construct reliability security system of emergency evacuation on "one casethree systems" framework. Constructing security system of emergency evacuationplans contains building plan system and management systems， improving theoperational mechanism and perfecting the rule of law and emergency. In the processof the system construction，the principles of following the longitudinal in the end andtransverse to the edge are taken in the paper. At the same time， the paper shows thatpower is the core，the organizational structure is the main content and Entropy theoryis used to make efficiency and quality order analysis of the organizational structure inorder to optimize the organizational structure. To address the emergency evacuationmanagement basis and regulatory issues， the paper proposes the establishment of thebasic ideas of emergency response at the national level. In order to support the normaloperation of the system， the paper constructs emergency evacuation informationmanagement platform based on the Internet of Things and make the interpretation ofideas and strategies to build the platform by information infrastructure platform andfunction modules.（6）This paper provides technical support for improving the reliability of theemergency evacuation on evacuation route optimization techniques and evacuationsimulation. On the basic analysis in common table operations， the shortest route andthe minimum cost maximum flow optimization methods， the paper takes empiricalresearch as an example in shortest path method. In order to make the emergencyevacuation process directly reflected and the evacuation process optimized， thispaper introduces several common software of transportation and logistics simulationand takes Jilin Yongji County as an example of the floods emergency evacuationsimulation.Combined with the simulation results， analysis of emergency evacuation process control， puts forward Suggestions for the improvement of emergencyevacuation efficiency effect.The paper makes the following innovation aspects during research perspective，research contents， research methods.（1）Study sudden floods emergency evacuation on the reliability perspective forthe first time. In the previous studies， there are lots of the applications of the theoryand methods of emergency evacuation without source of innovation， lots of localresearches without wide research， lots of strategic approaches without researchmechanism and lots of roads， facilities， equipment， personnel informationresearches without integration and sharing mechanism of emergency information.Focusing on the evaluation of floods emergency evacuation reliability， this papersolves the problem of information integration solutions for research and mechanismslag by proposing system protection from two aspects of safeguards reliability andtechnical support.（2）Analyze the emergency evacuation procedures by the means of introducingIDEF. By the formal description in logistics and the use of symbols and symboliclink， the paper expresses the emergency evacuation procedures and the logicalstructure and behavior.（3）Introducing the classical theory of human behavior patterns， the paperidentifies sudden floods emergency evacuation factors and to determine the weight ofright behavioral factors.（4）Analyze the reliability by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The paper proposes the key factor of affecting the reliability of floods emergencyevacuation builds reliability evaluation index system and evaluates the reliability ofemergency evacuation by combining fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory fromdetermining the evaluation object domain to establishing reviews set.（5） Evaluating the organization and management system of emergencyevacuation reliability by Entropy theory， the paper solves the rationality andeffectiveness of the organizational structure trouble through the order degree ofefficiency and quality.（6）Implement the net vertical integration of sensor network， transmissionnetwork and application network based on the emergency evacuation informationnetworking platform.This paper provides a new researching perspective for wide-area emergency evacuation by the exploratory study the reliability issues of floods emergencyevacuation. It is a new researching approach of determining emergency evacuationimpact factor and proposing a reliability evaluation index system through thedescription of IDEF emergency evacuation procedures. The general characteristics ofFuzzy AHP， Entropy theory， the shortest route and other methods are simplicity，utility and reliability， so this paper opens up a new mode of solving emergencyevacuation problems by using the complex obscure theories and methods as little aspossible.The conclusion of the paper is targeted， prospective and referenced byconnecting with the actual situation of sudden floods emergency evacuation and theresearch of floods zone in researching process， which can provide theoretical andpractical support for sudden floods emergency evacuation management of thegovernment， relevant departments， enterprises and institutions.