Study On The Export Of Tea In China From A View Of Demand

Tea is one of the traditional agricultural products for export in China, it plays a positive role in foreign exchange earning, and it is also an important industry for peasant. As the country that make use of tea earliest, China's tea production and export has very important place in the world, and tea products have broad international market under the influence of green consumption in the future. China's tea products will face more competitions after john WTO, problems are appearing to hinder the development of China's tea industry, especially in the situation that tea supply are over demand, quality criterions in the countries that import tea are becoming stricter, with the uncertain factor such as financial crisis, demand plays a key role in tea export more and more, so analysis and study of international tea demand is very important.With the direction of international trade theories, econometrics, agricultural economics and tea theories, the thesis combines theories with practice, quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis, and adopts the methods of GM(1,1) model, case study, comparative study, statistical study and econometrics models to make a systematic analysis of overseas demand of China's tea export.The thesis consists of nine chapters, as follows:The first chapter is about introduction, it deals mainly with the background, purpose, significance, ideas, methods, innovations and techno-way of the study. This part focus on the relevant researches of tea at home and abroad, summarizes the important viewpoints and the worthy methods from these researches, and finds out the shortage of these researches that need the further study.The second chapter expounds the theoretic basis of the study, the main rationale includes international trade theories, demand theories, theories about demand affecting international trade, and marketing theories guiding by demand.The third chapter is about analysis of tea production and trade in China and the world. To accurately grasp the tea market environment, this part makes a detailed summary of history and present situation about tea production and trade in China and the world, data make it clear that China's tea have consistently held a remarkable position in world tea trade, but it has gap in some aspects compared with other countries that export tea. Export market of China's tea mainly centralized in Asia and Africa, Morocco is the greatest oversea market of China's tea, and, U.S.A., Japan, Russia, Germany are all important oversea market of China's tea in long term. This chapter is the background and major premise of study.The fourth chapter tests the relevance between the fluctuation of China's tea export and demand, by the methods of relevance coefficient, cointegration test and Granger test, the results make it clear that overseas demand is closely related with the fluctuation of China's tea export. But the results also show that price has no effect to China's tea export, the main reason is low price competition. Based on the former positive results, the thesis analyzes the interviews to tea export enterprises for investigating the decisive factors that affecting tea export, and finds the decisive factors are marketing tactics, safety quality, policy of trade, and so on. This chapter is positive basis of the thesis.The fifth chapter studies the current situation, demand elasticity, consumer preference of major foreign markets of China's tea export, and makes a comparison between domestic and foreign consumption. Numerical demand elasticity of most foreign markets is smaller than 1, indicating that China's tea export is lack of elasticity.The sixth chapter studies the trade barriers in major foreign markets, tariff barriers are reducing and technical barriers are becoming the biggest obstruction in China's tea export. Although China's government values quality of tea, there are some problems in China's tea export, the thesis makes some suggestions to bring the management to completion as follows:strengthen R & D and innovation of tea technology; construct the safety quality criterion system; set up information system; give play to government and trades union; and so on.The seventh chapter forecasts the scales of China's tea export, China's tea outputs, tea import of world and China's major foreign markets in the future 4 years (2009-2012) by using GM(1,1) model. The results make it clear that the quality of tea will play more important role in the future.The eighth chapter makes segmengtation for China's tea oversea markets to 6 types by using cluster analysis. On the basis of taking "Lipton" and "Pu'er tea manor" as examples, the thesis analyzes the core idea of marketing for China's tea export and makes suggestions about marketing:raise the scale of marketing subjects; perfect innovation mechanism; create new content and way of marketing by using modern technology.The last chapter makes suggestions based on the results of the former chapters from government's angle:give strong backing to tea industry; maintain the competition order in tea export; improve legal insurance.