| Since 1960s, human capital has become one of the most important factors of economy growth, along with the advent of globalization and knowledge-based economy era. The continuous increase in human resource investment and human capital stock and the enhancement of the level of human capital have become the inevitable choice of competition among nations, regions and organizations. The subject of human capital investment may involve a nation, an organization, a family, an individual, etc. Investing in human capital with financial resources and improving the human capital level of the whole society are the basic strategies to achieve the economic development and the long-term stability of the nation. As is known to all, risk exists in any kind of investments. The risk of human capital financial investment is different from the risk of physical capital investment in that the former must be combined with the natural person. It is an implicit financial risk. Therefore, to grasp in a macro level the characteristics of government human capital as a result of the financial investment, to build the risk management system, to reduce the risk of target efficiency, to avoid withdrawal sunk cost, and to promote the initiative of social, business, organizations, individuals to invest in human capital, have become a problem which deserves more attention in public economic management.In the process of building a people-oriented and harmonious society, the government has continued to increase financial investment in human capital. The financial investment level in terms of education and training, health care, employment and migration has been increasing continuously. This requires us to improve risk management in human capital financial investment and to resolve human capital investment risk. This dissertation defines the concept of the government human capital in a macro perspective, systematically interpreting the formation mechanism of human capital financial investment, reviewing the path of China's human capital financial investment. From the levels of risk identification, risk assessment and risk management, the dissertation builds up a risk management system in human capital financial investment. Through the empirical analysis based on the risk assessment model, policy recommendations are proposed respectively. The main contents of the dissertation are as follows:Chapterâ… :introduction. This chapter generally introduces the background, purposes and significance of this study and briefly reviews relevant literature home and abroad. By combing relevant research results, a theoretical foundation has been laid for a comprehensive analysis of the risk in human capital financial investment, which paves a way for the further research carried out in this dissertation. Then, key concepts are defined respectively, research methods summarized, and basic framework of the study refined. Finally, the original ideas of the dissertation are emphasized.Chapterâ…¡:a basic theoretical research on the risk of human capital financial investment. The government's human capital property rights as the theoretical basis for the study of human capital financial investment, this chapter mainly discusses the theory of government human capital property rights in terms of the characteristics of property and contract, and income from property rights. The grounds of human capital financial investment are illustrated in terms of the quasi-public goods attribute of human capital as well as its external nature. And from the perspective of economics, the formation mechanism of human capital financial investment risk has been explained, factors of risk sources analyzed, and necessary attention to the conduction effects of the risk suggested.Chapterâ…¢:an investigation of present status of human capital financial investment risk. This chapter gives a comprehensive introduction of human capital financial investment, including its path and overall scale, the intensity of investment structure, as well as the present status of regional comparison. Raised are the findings that China's financial investment in human capital have escalated, whereas the controlling measures for the total amount of risk, equity and efficiency risk, market risk, and unexpected risk are inadequate. It's essential to understand the characteristics of risk further and enhance the risk management of human capital financial investment.Chapterâ…£:the identification mechanism of human capital financial investment risk. In this chapter the identification mechanism is established from both the qualitative and quantitative perspectives. In the qualitative analysis, an overall identification analysis is carried out in terms of target efficiency risk, withdrawal sunk risk. Six types of risks, such as static risk and dynamic risk, implicit risk and explicit risk, are summarized. According to certain principles, a risk index system of human capital financial investment is established. The AHP method (Analytic Hierarchy Process) is used in the analysis and calculation, in which the indexes are sorted according to their importance. Then representative indexes are selected for the further assessment analysis.Chapter V:the assessment mechanism of risk in human capital financial investment. Based on the importance-assessing index system determined by the AHP method, the risk assessment is carried out by combining the scientifically selected assessment indexes with the DEA method (Data Envelopment Analysis), the rationality of which is validated through the empirical analysis. Finally the results of the empirical study are analyzed in the economic perspective.Chapter VI:the governance mechanism of risks in human capital financial investment. Governance mechanism is the core of risk management in human capital financial investment. First, a human capital financial warning system should be created to pre-control risk; risk needs to be decentralized to incent and restrict both the subjects and objects of human capital financial investment; risk control needs to be enhanced in the auditing perspective. Simultaneously, the traditional ideas and practices of neglecting property right income should be changed. A rational compensation mechanism for the government's human capital should be established to avoid withdrawal risk.Chapter VII:the policy recommendations of risk management in human capital financial investment. Based on theoretical analysis of the previous chapters, relevant policy recommendations are presented at the practical level. The government should clearly know the boundaries of public investment, and actively guide all levels of joint investment involving private sectors, organizations and the whole society. The government may regulate market risk on the basis of property management and accordingly decentralize investment risk. Moreover, long-term policy planning should also be made to ensure the stability and long-term performance of policies and raise the initiative of the society in human capital investment. At the same time the government should pay attention to the priority, structure, and regions of investment, taking efficiency and fairness into consideration, reducing efficiency risk, and improving the human capital early warning mechanism. A withdrawal mechanism should be established to resolve the withdrawal risk.Chapter VIII:limitations and prospects of this study. In this chapter the conclusions of the above chapters are summarized and the limitations as well as the orientation of further study are put forward. The possible original ideas of this dissertation may lie in the following aspects:â… . The concept of government human capital is put forward on the basis of the predecessors'related researches, while referring to the characteristics of financial investment in human capital. Starting from the analysis of the government's human capital property rights, this dissertation conducts a systematic study of the characteristics, contracts and revenues of the government's human capital property rights, proposing the idea that government human capital is a new theoretical category different from individual human capital, organizational human capital, social human capital, public sector human capital, etc.â…¡. An innovative perspective is adopted to explore an important aspect of financial risk-implicit financial risk. The previous researches of financial risk in China are mostly focused on explicit risk, such as risk of international debt, treasury risk, guarantee risk, etc. However, as an important policy tool of the government, financial investment involves implicit risk which determines whether the financial investment can achieve the target effect, whether the area of investment is necessary, to what extent sunk risk exists. Implicit financial risk may occur unexpectedly and last a long term. It's also difficult to be measured quantitatively. By systematically analyzing the risk, this paper raises that the risk in human capital financial investment is a typical implicit financial risk. This also makes a useful attempt to discuss implicit financial risk theoretically through the econom(?)lysis of risk sources, factors, and conduction effects. Besides, the mathematical modeling method and econometric tools are also adopted.â…¢. Currently, the index system, risk warning system and control models are mainly applied in the human capital management of enterprises. However, in the field of financial investment, especially in human capital financial investment research, it is rarely used. Therefore, this paper, taking the characteristics of human capital in to consideration, establishes an integrated, comprehensive, and highly applicable risk management index system, which consists of the total amount index and rate index of the input, the total amount index, efficiency index and fairness index of the output. Trying to explore the index system, risk warning system and control models of human capital financial investment is a significant attempt in methodology and a meaningful push for the further related research.(4) The withdrawal compensation mechanism of government human capital is proposed. Focusing on its social benefit rather than its economic profit, social financial investment is lack of precise performance evaluation and risk assessment, which results in an illusory idea that the benefits of public financial investment can be ignored. This paper presents a different viewpoint that, similar to physical capital investment, human capital investment should also attach much importance to investment assessment and, revenue assessment, and property characteristics analysis, and to avoid investment risk. As for human capital formed by the different subjects, the distribution of investment income should be defined reasonably according to the property rights. This has laid a theoretical basis for the withdrawal compensation mechanism of government human capital. This dissertation also holds that public officers'dismission behavior should be compensated in terms of human capital, which has laid a basis for the effective settlement of labor disputes involving public officers.As is stated above, based on the theory of government human capital, with the careful consideration of China's specific national conditions, this dissertation focuses on the risk management of human capital financial investment and attempts to discuss the theory of human capital in the framework of government investment from a macroscopic perspective. In addition, it also organically combines the risk of financial investment with the achievement of government goals. From this point of view, with the help of the empirical analysis of econometric models, related risk governance mechanisms and policy recommendations have been presented. All these will provide a new perspective for the study of the risk management mechanism of human capital financial investment, such as the systematic analysis of the characteristics of implicit risk, the improvement of risk warning system, the perfection of withdrawal compensation mechanism.
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