The Historical Development Of Sino-US Trade Relations And Policy Game

Sino-US economic and trade relations has developed rapidly in recent years, trade and investment has become an important channel for bilateral economic ties and approaches. In the past 30 years of development history, the Sino-US economic and trade relationship is not all smooth sailing, sometimes even twists and turns.In The 21st century, new trade protectionism has been sweeping the world, trade frictions has been showing new trends and characteristics. The form of trade protection is more diverse,more hidden and more efficient. In this context, trade frictions increased frequently, the scope of the subject has also been expanding. Except the trade friction between the developed countries, trade friction between the developed and developing countries has also attracted much attention. Increasingly frequent Sino-US trade friction becomes the focus of concern. After the China's accession to the WTO, the Americans had expected that the Sino-U.S. trade deficit would be narrowed, jobs increased but these did not occur. On the contrary, trade deficit with China has been increasing, a large number of lost jobs and a net outflow of advanced technology products, such emergence of this situation in the United States aggregated into a strong anti-Chinese trade sentiment. Trade frictions between the two countries took place from time to time, sanctions and counter-sanctions, restrictions and against restrictions break out on trade. Sino-US trade friction has gradually become a major obstacle to further development in bilateral economic and trade relations.As Sino-US trade imbalance would be a long-term existence which will give the healthy development of the Sino-US political and economic relations the significant and sustained adverse effects. In a particular context, it will become a hidden deterioration of Sino-US economic and trade relations. Therefore, the analysis of the reasons for the Sino-US economic imbalances, concern the development of Sino-US economic and trade frictions and tap the potential of the further development of Sino-US economic and trade relations, promoting development of Sino-US economic and trade relations has great positive meaning. In Sino-US trade friction, the form of the trade friction is most diverse and typical; almost all of the conflicts are provoked by the United States single-handedly. As the United States has a significant influence in the global economy, the trade friction launched by U.S has great demonstrated effect, to a certain extent; other countries will follow the United States, thereby to stir up similar trade disputes with China. Therefore, to solve Sino-US trade friction, maintain and develop Sino-US economic and trade relations is significant issue to improve China's global political and economic status.This article intends to sort out the related theory and research literature in Sino-US trade friction, implying the relevant theory of political economy, based on the Sino-US bilateral economic and trade relations to do the more in-depth theoretical exploration. At the same time, examining the performance of Sino-US trade frictions shape and the development of Sino-US bilateral trade, the overall situation and its features were also analyzed, thus to explore the root causes of Sino-US trade frictions.The results show that:Sino-US trade friction is likely the political results, namely, it is the game results of the United States political parties and interest groups play on political donations (political interests) in the trade policy-making process. If the results showed that when the game provoked to resort to trade protectionism, trade frictions can get more political interests, trade protectionism is on the upper hand; Sino-US trade friction will greatly increase the probability of occurrence. States to take protection or free trade depends on the internal party political game, while the party game is based on the ability to rent-seeking of interest groups. This explains why the trade friction damage to the country's overall welfare, many countries (which is far more prominent in the United States) still provoke the trade disputes. Therefore, in considering the development of Sino-US economic and trade relations strategy, we must take full account of the two internal political factors and the impact of interest groups, and their inclusion in the analysis framework.To expand the depth of analysis, this article do some political economy research of the U.S. trade policy on China-US trade, set up the Heckscher-Ohlin and Ricardo-Vine Models based on the U.S. House of Representatives voting results of China's PNTR bill, testing the U.S. congressmen's voting behavior in a quantitative style, analyze the factors that affect the voting results for our in-depth study of U.S. trade policy decision-making process for reference.Model analyzing results show that:The United States trade policies adopted by taking into account the economic interests while also strongly influenced by the political system, U.S. trade policy is actually the combination of economic interests and political realities, it's the game results of various interest groups play on U.S. political arena. Analysis also pointed out that Sino-US trade friction involved from trade to finance, from the economy to broad areas of politics is not just a reflection of economic interest and the national interest.Under the rules of United States politics, the approach of put trade protectionism as well as human rights and other non-trade issues into trade policy has its foundation. As long as the forces of trade protectionism is still strong, American politics continue to adhere to the rules of these games, these might seem absurd practice is likely to continue in the Sino-US trade, but in general these arguments and practices do not change the trend of Sino-US trade development.In addition to theoretical research, this article give systematic analysis of the developed process of Sino-US trade relations and the impact of core elements of interaction in this relations, such as:trade frictions, the RMB exchange rate, China-US strategic economic dialogue etc, summarizes the different periods of Sino-US trade friction in various manifestations since the 20th century, pointing out that Sino-US trade friction has gone through three main different historical stages:the micro trade friction phase (1980-2001), trade friction macro-phase (2002-2006) and the system of trade friction phase (2006-present), and a brief analysis of manifestations of the Sino-US trade friction in three different historical phases. In order to clarify the underlying causes of Sino-US trade friction, this paper analyzes the overall situation of Sino-US trade development, study the frequent causes of Sino-US trade friction from the political and economic aspects. Analysis shows that:China's dependence on trade is higher than the United States. Thus, in the Sino-US trade friction, China is in a relatively passive position. The United States'policy interfered by domestic politics, often provoked the Sino-US trade disputes, in order to conceal and transfer its domestic economic problems, which is mainly reflected in the struggle for the political interests among different interest groups. In the meantime, the development of Sino-US trade imbalance is an indisputable fact that this occurrence has played a role in fueling for trade friction. Based the above-mentioned analysis, this paper study the main form of Sino-US trade friction performance and briefly analyzes the root causes of trade frictions. To enhance the persuasiveness of the theory, this paper also study a typical case in Sino-US trade friction, and put some forward inspiration. In addition, this article combine game theory and public choice theory to discuss the Sino-US trade retaliation and counter-retaliation issues.Taking consideration of the hot issues as RMB exchange rate and China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue, I believe that:in the course of development of Sino-US economic and trade relations, game policy between the two superpowers is everywhere, although there will inevitably be differences and twists and turns. However, in the Sino-US economic and trade relations, cooperation has become the main theme. As "stakeholders", Sino-US, not only have needs on political and security cooperation, economic symbiosis has been so long, prosperity or a loss for both sides. Under the financial crisis'background, China and the U.S. are the important driving force for global economic recovery, carrying out mutually beneficial Sino-US economic and trade cooperation will provide a solid basis for global economic recovery. Sino-US co-operation of the two economic powers is both a practical embodiment of the policy game, and conducive to world economic stability and development.Finally, the paper pointed out that China should make full use of an opportunity that most of countries in the world comes together to fight against the global financial crisis, and do broader field of in-depth cooperation with the United States, develop the Sino-US strategic economic and trade relations. In the specific developed strategy, this article suggests a number of developing Sino-US economic and trade relations proposal from the four major dimensions.