A Study On Chinese Mini-Automobile Market And Its Distribution Channel

Developing for several decades, Chinese automobile market has already become one of those major markets in the world. Chinese mini-auto market is one sub-market of Chinese automobile market; it is not only of great significance to Chinese automobile market, but also closely related to resources crisis, energy-saving, urbanization and low-carbon economy, so it is practically important to study Chinese mini-auto market.Competition in mini-auto market has become more and more severe. From the perspective of mini-auto industrial environment, this dissertation adopts CRn Index to calculate industrial concentration ratio of mini-auto industry and analyzes dynamic changes of this industrial concentration ratio. And then it concludes that mini-auto market is oligopoly market with a high oligopoly degree, while there exists competition in this market. Another important angle of view that observes a industry are scale economy, relations among input factors and price elasticities of input factors. Based on iterated seemingly unrelation regression (ISUR), this dissertation constructs Chinese mini-automobile industry's Translog production function with production worker, non-production worker and capital as input factors; it estimates Chinese mini-automobile industry's returns to scale order; it uses this estimation to calculate the substitution elasticity among those input factors and then it calculates price elasticity required by input factors through substitution elasticity;on the basis of those calculations, this dissertation analyzes the situation of Chinese mini-automobile industry's scale economy, analyzes those substitution or complementary relations among input factors, and studies how factors'price changes affect factors on demand. It concludes that mini-auto industry has already been in the stage of constant return to scale; production worker and non-production worker are complementary; production worker, non-production worker and capital lack elasticity.Market development is not only constrained by industrial structure, but also affected by market demand. Considering that the demand of mini-auto market is much fluctuated, based on the thought that automobile stock adjusts market demand, this dissertation constructs Chinese mini-automobile's market demand model so as to study whether Chinese mini-automobile's market stock obviously affects it's the demand for mini-automobiles. It finds out that Chinese mini-automobile's market stock is not in a balanced and ideal position, and mini-automobile market stock doesn't obviously affect demands for mini-automobiles. And demands for mini-automobiles are mainly decided by income and price, and then it calculates price elasticity and income elasticity of Chinese mini-automobile's market demand. In order to study how urbanization affects the market demand of mini-automobile, this dissertation adopts factor analysis model to transfer urbanization rate variables into urbanization rate factors, and constructs a regression model that illustrates how urbanization rate factors affect the market demand for mini-automobile, which concludes that with urbanization rate factors increasing by 1%, demand for mini-truck increases by 0.432%, and that of mini-bus increases by 1.071%. And based on time serial ARIMA model, this dissertation constructs prediction model about Chinese mini-automobile's market demand and predicts its demands through this model.Only mini-automobile stock is not enough to adjust demands for mini-automobiles, for demands change frequently. Urbanization increases demands for mini-automobiles, and its target market has been changing. So it is necessary to study customers of mini-automobile market. Based on more than 2000 surveys, this dissertation analyzes Chinese mini-automobile customers'characteristics, and it puts forward some hypotheses that customers'characteristics affect their information searching behaviors and purchase decision too. In order to prove these hypotheses, it adopts optimal scale regression model to construct the regression model that illustrates how customer's characteristics variables affect customer's information search range and their purchase decision. On the basis of logistic regression model, this dissertation constructs a regression model that illustrates how customer's characteristics affect their use on Internet. Test result from this regression models shows that part of these hypotheses are proved to be true, while part of that are not. Customers'information search range varies form their education background, age, occupation and incomes. Customers'education background, occupation and age significantly affect their use on Internet when searching automobile information. Customers'income, occupation, and age significantly influence their purchase decision, while their family population and gender don't.Based on studies about customers'characteristics and behaviors, it finds out mini-automobile customers'low incomes affects their purchase decision largely. Considering 4S stores are not suitable for distribution, this dissertation studies distribution channels of mini-automobile market. In the basis of analysising the changes of distribution channels of China and the Occident automobile market, it constructs one-level distribution channel profit optimization models which depict the affection of cost and retailers numbers on chanels from prospective of channel relationship, through which it studies how costs and numbers of retailers affect channel profit, and it gets 8 propositions. Then it tests this model's validity and practical values by numerical examples. At last, based on the previous results about customers'characteristics and behaviours, it studies Chinese mini-automobile's distribution channel modes from prospective of distribution channel's level, width, and channel relationship, then it put forwards the channel model that is suitable for mini-automobile distribution.