| Looking from the international experience, modern agriculture development has already broken through the limitation of traditional agriculture category. At the same time, taking the planting and raising as the center, modern agriculture extended to pre sector and post sector, which has formed an inter-linkage system. As results, modern agriculture has extended to other three sectors such as input sector, production sector, agricultural products processing manufacture sector and agricultural product transportation and sale sector, which has formed an agricultural industry system, also namely agribusiness in the word. In this foundation, the research introduces the international experience into Chinese modern agricultural development and summarizes the modern agriculture as follow:take agribusiness idea as the instruction, take the modern science and technology as the support, and take the industrial organization as the link, stretches across Fist, Second and Third industries. Looking from the experience of developed country agricultural development, the traditional agriculture already reduced day by day in the national economy proportion, including US,Japan, European Union and so on. In developed countries, GDP proportion of traditional agriculture in national total output already dropped to 2%, but as to the ratio of agribusiness in national economy, its total output still holds the pivotal status, which stabilizes at 8-10%, so that the agribusiness has a more important influence to the national economy development in developed countries.Our country's agricultural development is in the reforming crucial phase of transforming from the traditional agriculture to the modern agriculture.In the last thirty years the traditional agriculture drops year by year in the national economy proportion, in 2008 traditional agriculture GDP occupied 11.3% in the whole national economy. According to Petty and Clerk theorem, along with the fast development of our national economy, the traditional agriculture will continue dropping year by year in the national economy proportion. So comes, what is the further developing direction of Chinese agriculture? Without doubt, the concept of modern agriculture has indicated the development path of Chinese agricultural. Since that there is large potential for Chinese modern agricultural development, what is the exact developing space quantity? What is the key sector? The research will focus on these questions, introduce the agribusiness concept to the analysis of Chinese modern agriculture, using international input-output analysis method which have been matured in the word, take the Chinese 1987-2002 year I-O tables as the data sources, carry on the structure and the connection of Chinese agribusiness, at the same time compare the total quantity and the structure with US and Japan, thus the research can draw the correlated conclusion and propose the right policy to speed the development of Chinese agribusiness, at last the research also discusses the strategy of developing Chinese modern agricultural.Chinese research on agribusiness at present mainly limit in introducing the concept of agribusiness as well as analyzing the development policy of agribusiness and so on, or alone analyzes the agricultural product processing industry and so on. The applied research with input-output analysis also mainly concentrates in industries and service industry, such as posts and telecommunications, energy, traveling, transportation shipping industry, but taking agriculture and its relative sectors as a relatively independent industrial system, using input-output method to study its industrial characteristic overall, is still relative few. This research precisely begins from this angle, and puts into input-output method and using the industrial economics theory, found China agribusiness I-O table with China I-O table and take this as the foundation to carry on the input-output analysis, and discusses how to promote Chinese agribusiness development level and give some certain policy suggestion.The research will put into I-O theory and the international agribusiness theory, apply agribusiness analysis in the development of modern agriculture in our country, so that can develop the input-output analysis application domain, enrich content of agribusiness research, which is helpful in understanding Chinese agribusiness characteristic, indicates our government how to develop modern agriculture, so that provide the policy-making basis for our country to promote agribusiness and even the national economy development, which has vital practice significance. The full text divides into three parts, altogether six chapters.The first part of the research includes the introduction and the first and the second chapter, which introduced briefly the significance and the value of why selecting the topic as research issue, as well as the research content and the technical route, the data resources used in the quantitative analysis, also carrying on the track of agribusiness input-output analysis. In the first chapter, according to international agricultural development, there are three stages namely primitive agriculture, traditional agriculture and modern agriculture. The research has carried on the summary and traced backward to the agribusiness concept, pointed out that Chinese modern agriculture is taking the agribusiness idea as the instruction, which includes pre-sectors, produces, post-sectors and so on, stretches across the first, second and third industries, its development depends on the improvement of organization of producing and consuming, instead of the simple farmer organization, which is based on the industrial organization carrying with industry incidence relation and the benefit joint mechanism. Introduced in the second chapter was the input-output analysis method (Input-Output,IO), this method is an economic quantity method which focus on economical system. The method was established in 30's of 20th century, which was raised by Professor Leontief who was from US Harvard University. Through establishing the I-O table and relative model, he can indicate the industrial structure inner link clearly between the various branches and sectors of a national economy; besides this, the analysis can reflect the direct and indirect relation between various departments, various industries in production process as well as various departments and in national economy.Both the third chapter, the fourth chapter and the fifth chapter are the second part of this article; also is the core and the key of the full dissertation. This part use input-output analysis to analyze the structure characteristics and the inerlinkages of Chinese agribusiness. Third chapter adjusted Chinese input-output tables to found Chinese agribusiness I-O table, which is the base of following analysis. Taking 1987,1992,1997, and 2002 Chinese input-output table as the foundation, through the adjusting and merging, obtained the analytic result of Chinese agribusiness structure. The proportion of four sectors of Chinese agribusiness (input sector, production sector, processing manufacture sector and transportation and sales sector) is 0.18:1:1.32:0.44, but at the same time America's is 0.30:1:3.89:2.15,Japanese's is 0.15:1:4.38:2.49. Obviously, comparing with US and Japan, the internal linkage degree of Chinese agribusiness system including processing manufacture, the transportation and sale as well as the input sector's is low, sectors of pre agricultural production and the post part needs to be strengthen. The fourth chapter use direct consumption coefficient, complete consume coefficient, the middle demand rate, sensitivity coefficient, influence coefficient and so on to analyze the interlinkages of Chinese agribusiness, finally indicated the influence coefficient of Chinese agribusiness is 1.0162, which was bigger than 1 slightly, this meant impetus function of agribusiness is higher than all industrial to the national economy development. As a whole, impetus function of agribusiness is obvious to the national economy development. Generally speaking, various of interior links of Chinese agribusiness is to be in the high level to the second industrial, the complete consumption coefficient approaches to 1,which reflected fully the agribusiness interior sector especially the pre and post production sector has strong links with the second industrial, also explained that agribusiness has the industrial characteristics of stretching across the first to the third industrial. Fifth chapter focused on the agribusiness research of Jiangsu province, Hunan province and Gansu province, which included comparative analyses of quantities, structure and linkage.The third part includes the sixth chapter, on the base of analysis of each front chapter, the research proposed the corresponding policy. The research suggested the government taking the following measures to promote further development of Chinese agribusiness: implement integration strategy, which integrate four sectors of input, production, agricultural products processing and agricultural service industry; improve main agribusiness enterprise, take the enterprise organization and the industrial organization as the link, advancing the development of agribusiness; enhance technological innovation ability of agribusiness, especially promote technical innovation of e agricultural products processing manufacturing industry, so as to promote the link of different sectors of agribusiness; it is sure that the government should improve the exterior policy environment of Chinese agribusiness. |
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