| As the reforming and opening up goes deep, and especially China's entry into WTO, the provincial economy of China grows rapidly but not harmoniously. This problem has a vital bearing on provincial economic benefits and future development strategy of all the provinces. Moreover, it is also related to the people's livelihood. The importance of regional coordinated development has been a topic of most concern in the macroeconomic management.Actually, there have been many research achievements on regional economic coordinated development until now. However, as they are based on different research methods and time, so the results are usually significant different. It is hard to get an overwhelming conclusion. This article based on a clear logical framework will focus on the regional coordinated development, and will get a better result. According to the content dimension, this article is divided into two major themes, which are regional economic coordinated development and economic growth. Taking the province as an analysis unit, and the year 1988-2007 as an analysis time, this article will research on the above themes, and solve three questions:At present, if China's provincial economic development is harmonious? In the predict future, China's economy will be convergent or divergent? What are the factors that affect China's provincial economic coordinated development?On the method dimension, this article follows the traditional methods to analyze economic coordinated development, and also expand it a lot with way base. In chapterâ…¢and chapterâ…£, the basic static index measure and the traditional measure of economic convergent test are used to analyze the themes. Chapterâ…¤focuses on the natural "defects" of the traditional economy convergence test measure (esp. cross section data), and study the distribution of regional economic growth by nuclear density function. The linear assumption of regional economic system is not the focus in Chapterâ…¥, this chapter study relevant indicators which reflect the dispersion degree of regional economy by nonlinear R/S analysis method. Chapterâ…¦gives less importance on the assumptions that there is no spatial interaction between the regional economies; it analyzes the factors that affect the spatial agglomeration characteristics of provincial economy and the economic development by spatial statistics and spatial panel econometrics.After the research, this article answers the above questions as following:Firstly, in the current situation, the evidence shows that China's provincial economy does not seem to converge, but diverge, which is supported in many places of this article. Chapter III proves out the divergence trend of regional economy in recent years by the absolute index, relative index and the Gini coefficient. ChapterIV support it by several typical convergent test. Chapter V provides evidence by the nuclear density function.Secondly, according to the probe situation in the future, in predict years, this divergent trend is likely to continue. The chapter, Chapters V and VI offer empirical evidence. Chapter IV predicts the trend of regional economic divergence through several typical convergent test; Chapter prospects the trend of the provincial economic growth distribution by Markov chain, With the R/S analysis, chapter VI predicts that the variability indicators in the next two decades will be divergent similar to the current situation.Finally, according to the impact factor, China's provincial economy is affected mainly by population, the economic capital, human capital and other factors, which is suggested in Chapter VII. After analyzing the impact factors of regional economy by spatial panel econometrics and spatial regression model, Chapter VII draw some meaningful conclusions. |
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