The Research Of Effect Of Stakeholders' Behavior Decisions On Capital Allocation Performance In Commercial Banks

The principles system of risk management of international banking taking capital restriction as core had been gradually formed from "The Basel Capital Accord" to "The New Basel Capital Accord", at the same time international banking is entering the era of bank capital management. From the 1990s, China began promoting the capital management of commercial banks and has gotten certain achievements. However, China's banking is also experiencing transition from planned economy system to market economy system, and the bank management mechanism has undergone enormous changes, especially the shareholding system reform of state-owned commercial banks. Accordingly the paper advanced the problem of impact of corporate governance on capital management of commercial bank, and the paper believes that how to coordinate the relationship between them is the urgent problem for successful restructuring China's commercial banks. The existing researches about banking corporate governance more focus on the impact of corporate governance on the bank risk, emphasizing the commercial bank's internal control how to prevent the risk, and rarely involve the impact of corporate governance on capital management of commercial bank. The paper researched the impact of corporate governance on capital management of commercial bank from way of researching the impact of stakeholders'behavior decisions on capital allocation performance of commercial bank, the core issue of bank capital management.The paper advanced the dynamic capital allocation system involving the impact of various main stakeholders'behavior decisions of commercial bank, based on this system the paper established the models of impact of main stakeholders'behavior decisions on capital allocation performance of commercial bank using principal-agent theory, bounded rationality theory, and information asymmetry theory, hereby the paper researched the impacting mechanism of behaviors decisions of external stakeholders (including depositors, loan enterprises, and regulators) and internal stakeholders (including shareholders and managers) on the capital allocation performance of commercial bank. The paper found that external stakeholder would impact capital allocation performance through influencing the factors of capital size, assets size, and risk size of commercial bank; and internal stakeholder would impact capital allocation performance through influencing establishment and execution of assets strategy, risk strategy, and capital strategy of commercial bank. The paper performed empirical test for results of theoretical research using actual data of China's commercial banks, the test demonstrated that, in China, the behavior decisions of depositors, regulators, shareholders, and managers were different from the results of theoretical research because of implicit guarantee of government, absolute equity of state, absence of owners, and monopoly position of state-owned commercial bank. Finally, the simulation model of the influences of stakeholders'behavior decisions on capital management in commercial banks was established by using support vector machine (SVM) regression, the results of simulating demonstrated that the theoretical model advanced by the paper could effectively predict the impact of behavior decisions of various main stakeholders on capital allocation performance of China's joint-stock commercial banks.The paper performed several innovative researches in following aspects:(1) The issue of the impact of stakeholders'behavior decisions on capital allocation performance of commercial bank was advanced. The corporate governance of banks focus on the impact of corporate governance on the bank risk, the writer hasn't found the study of impact of bank corporate governance on the bank capital management in literatures referred. Based on the practice of China's commercial banks and forward researches of corporate governance theory and bank capital management theory, the paper advanced the issue of the impact of stakeholders'behavior decisions on capital allocation performance of commercial bank.(2) The paper advanced the dynamic capital allocation system of commercial banks which contained the impact of the stakeholders' behavior decision in order to more comprehensively explain the capital allocation of commercial bank. The paper believed that bank capital allocation should be a balancing process of supply and demand of bank capital, and be a dynamic multi-stage cycle process which takes maximizing shareholder value and effectively preventing risk as the goal, the different stakeholders would generated different impacts in different stages of this dynamic cycle process, finally influenced the capital allocation performance.(3) The paper established the models of main stakeholders'behavior decision to research the influencing mechanism of stakeholders'behavior decision on capital allocation performance of commercial bank. Based on the fruits of the related research in home and abroad, the paper established math models of impacts of depositors, loan companies, regulators, shareholders, managers on capital allocation performance of commercial and directly demonstrated the influencing mechanism of stakeholders'behavior decision on capital allocation performance of commercial bank.(4) The empirical test of impacts of various main stakeholders'behavior decisions on capital allocation performance of China's commercial banks was performed; based on it the paper obtained the real status of China's banking. At present, the similar empirical researches in domestic and foreign are very few. Using data of China's 16 commercial banks from 1999 to 2006 data, using the fixed effects and random effects methods for panel data, the paper respectively tested the samples of overall commercial banks, state-owned commercial banks samples, and joint-stock commercial banks samples, undertood the real situation of China's commercial banks in impacts of various main stakeholders'behavior decisions on capital allocation performance.(5) The paper established the simulation model of the influences of stakeholders'behavior decisions on capital management in commercial banks using SVM technology, and effectively predicted impacts of various stakeholders'behavior decisions on capital allocation performance of China's joint-stock commercial banks. The simulating model took the advantages of support vector machine (SVM) regression at resulting problems of small samples, high dimensions, and generalizing approximation, the predicting results of the simulating model demonstrated the validity of the theoretical model advanced by the paper and provided the academic reference for the reform of China's commercial banks.