Variation Of The Economic Crisis And Policy Research On The Evolution

Since the world first economic crisis happened in England in 1825, economy of Capitalism has been weaving its way through boom and recession. Till now, no country can exempt from the shadow of economic crisis, no matter it is of developed country or developing, Capitalism or Socialism. Same to all countries, once economic crisis happened, their production would become unmarketable, productivity weakened, unemployment soared, enterprises broken down and as a result, their social economy would fall into status of paralysis, chaos and regression. For some worse situations, political crisis and social instability may also occur. Thus, researches on the by-product of market economy - the crisis, have draw attentions of the world.As a matter of fact, researches on economic crisis had been included in the theoretical scope of western economists as early as 19 century. For the last 200 more years, they have been discussing and analyzing causes, types, and remedies of economic crisis independently, which formed into different school of thoughts. These achievements have indeed laid a solid foundation for further works on this topic.Nonetheless, we have to admit that, the research of economic crisis by these western economists are all conducted based on a precondition, that the Capitalism remain unchanged, and therefore theoretical limitations inevitably exist in these works. On contrast, Marxist economic theory on economic crisis will provide guidance for us to better understand past crisis. Thus, this thesis will be conducted based on stand, viewpoint and method of Marxism, analyze issues of economic crisis variation, mechanism, government's role variation and policy transmutation, and provide theoretical reference for government to counteract economic crisis.Apart from'Introduction', this thesis is divided into five chapters.In the'Introduction'chapter, we will briefly discuss recent achievements on research of economic crisis, and then put forward the significance of chosen topic, thesis frame, technical route, innovation point and research methodology.In Chapter 1, we will illustrate the meaning of economic crisis, its key characteristics and signs of variations. By reviewing background of main economic crisis and their concrete representations in the past 100 years, we find out that past crisis have three common key characteristics– destructive, conductive and periodic. Moreover, we find that economic crisis has been mutating into different representations by time, such as coexistences of unemployment and inflation, weakened negative impact of crisis, dominance of virtual economy and global influences.In Chapter 2, we will analyze economic crisis and its mutating mechanism in detail. By summarizing Marx's theory about economic crisis and other western economists'thought, we believe that the Marx's theory is still the foundation to recognize economic crisis in modern Capitalist world. Meanwhile, we find that government intervention, technical revolution and economic globalization are key reasons for the mutation.In Chapter 3, we will discuss the relationship between government's role variation and economic crisis mutation. In the eye of classic economists, the invisible hand of market mechanism can spontaneously adjust economy and achieve optimal allocation of resources, while government only acts as"night guide". However, the occurrence of 1929 crisis broke the myth. The bourgeoisie is forced to redefine government's role in economic activities after the crisis. Government's role, has thus been varied as economic crisis varied, from intervention to drift, and back to intervention again.In Chapter 4, we will analyze the relationship among economic crisis, government's role variation and policy transmutation in detail. At first, we figure out that government's role variation is led by crisis variation, while economic policy, which is the anti-crisis tool for government, would also transmute as others do. Economic policies change from demand management to supply management, then to the combination of both, from independent implementation to cooperation, from domestic action to international cohesion, and finally reach anti-crisis policies that are implemented by international economic organizations and all governments; and this transmutation has indeed enlightened us in counteracting economic crisis.In Chapter 5, we will investigate economic periodicity in China and its adjustment policies. According to the path of China's economic growth rate and"recession– recession"method, we believe economic periodicity in China since 1949 can be divided into 10 periods with following characteristics. First is that the periodic length varies, and tends to become longer than the previous one. Second is that the fluctuation range varies, and tends to be smaller. Third is that there were two types of periods– classic and growth, and the later one tends to be dominance. Fourth is that there are two situations– closed and opened, and the period in China tends to be more synchronized to the world. The basic cause of these characteristics, we believe, can be classified into three aspects, the conflict of social demand and supply, the defect of economic institution and the level of open-up. Based on above analysis and the summary of policy adjustment of Chinese government in past economic periods, we figure out the exact problem of China's economy under current crisis, and put forward some remedies.Economic crisis is inevitable for any country that is developing market-oriented economy; it is only a matter of time. As we see the destruction done to the economy and society, we should also see the positive side of economic crisis, that it provides opportunities to adjust industry structure, conduct institutional innovation and realize scientific development.