A Study On The Theories And Methods Of The Production Safety Risk Early-warning For Refining And Chemical Highly Hazardous Systems

Based on the chaotic theory and the modern safety risk management theory, and the study and analysis of risk early-warning theory, model and mechanism results in other fields, this paper proposed the model for the industrial safety risk early-warning. Besides, combined with the demand and fact of safety management in the refining and chemical field, taking the equipments of refining and chemical highly hazardous systems as research objects, discussed the concrete methods and technology of the implementation of the safety risk early-warning system for refining and chemical highly hazardous systems. And taking de typical RFCC as example to text the early-warning model.First of all, this paper demonstrated that refining and chemical corporation is an chaotic system, expounded the theory of risk identification according to the units Division model of "point- line–area",estimated the complex risk of refining and chemical corporation using chaotic theory and Artificial Neural Networks(ANN) analysis methodThis paper proposed two kinds of method for forecasting risk according to the chaotic theory, local-region method and ANN method. This paper restricted their application area by comparing these two methods,the front could forecast risk of pipeline and device that were manual-monitored and the latter could forecast risk of pipeline and device that were continuous auto-monitored.According to the method of risk identification, risk assessment and risk forecasting, this paper established signal management system of risk early-warning and proposed risk early-warning model that risk signal collection-risk data operation -risk alertness releasing-risk status control. And this paper proposed risk control principle of'timely','effective'and'adjust local configuration basing on integral order'and proposed control mode of"technology and management". At the same time, this paper expounded the organize-configuration and function of risk early-warning.According to the demand of the projects, taking typical RFCC as examples, this paper respectively identified the risk source and analyzed the identification result of ARGG and TMP. This study carried out risk early-warning in RFCC system, and the result showed that the safety risk early-warning system was systematical, practical and operable.Finally, this paper summarized the study of this paper, and put forward the contents and the exploring orientation in further research.