Supply Coordination On Two-Suppliers And One-Manufacturer System With Uncertain Delivery

This thesis has studied supply coordination in upstream supply chain .Combined with theoretical analysis and empirical approaches in areas of management, operation research, system decision making, and optimization modeling, and integrating qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the problem of supply coordination on two-suppliers and one-manufacturer system under uncertain delivery was studied comprehensively and systematically. Based on the theory of supply chain coordination operation and investigation of domestic automobile management practice, three kinds of uncertain delivery were summarized: uncertain delivery quantity, uncertain delivery time and uncertain supplier's inventory. Then decision-making of supply coordination on two-supplier and one- manufacturer system was analyzed under different circumstances of uncertain delivery and corresponding coordination mechanism was put forward. As a result, the monitoring and warning model of supply coordination in multi-suppliers and one-manufacturer system with uncertain delivery was established.First, supply coordination model of two-suppliers and one-manufacturer under uncertain delivery quantity was established. Optimal lot sizing was analyzed under centralized decision, and then profit model of suppliers and manufacturer were constructed. Nash equilibrium was proved between suppliers and manufacturer when overflow inventory cost was considered. The profit of supply chain under Nash equilibrium was no more than under centralized decision. In order to reach the best profit of the supply chain, risk sharing policy was proposed to coordinate the supply chain. Manufacturer shared the risk of suppliers when supplier' s effective yield excessed the order quantity and suppliers shared the risk of manufacturer when suppliers' delivering quantity was mismatching. Finally case analysis showed order quantity, suppliers' risk sharing coefficient and manufacturer' s risk sharing coefficient can be controlled by manufacturer to meet certain relationship and then profit of supply chain under decentralized decision can reach the profit under centralized decision.Second, supply coordination model of two-suppliers and one-manufacturer under uncertain delivery time was established. After the assumption was made and related parameters were defined, the profit decision model of supply chain without supply coordination was analyzed and the optimal of supplier and manufacturer's decision was given. Then the profit decision model of supply chain with supply coordination was considered. Numerical Example showed the profit of supply chain with supply coordination was much higher than without supply coordination, but the optimal manufacturer's price and supplier's delivery time with supply coordination was lower than without supply coordination. In order to achieve the profit with supply considerations, income distribution mechanism of supply coordination was put forward based on the utility theory.Third, supply coordination model of two-suppliers and one-manufacturer based on different delivery policies was established. After the description of agreement delivery based on delivery window( called policy 1) and controllable delivery based on cost sharing( called policy 2), the Stackelberg model of policy 1 was established and the optimal decision was given. Then supply chain optimization model of policy 2 was constructed and the algorithm of solution was given. Then range of the cost sharing coefficient was given where the policy 2 was superior to policy 1, and finally the coordination policy was put forward based on asymmetric Nash Equilibrium.Finally, according to above situation of uncertain delivery, the monitoring and warning model of supply chain coordination with uncertain delivery was established. After in-depth analysis of generating mechanism of uncertainty, the monitoring mechanism with uncertain delivery was put forward. The supply coordination of supply chain lied in important suppliers and then the monitoring and warning model of supply chain coordination was established based on case based reasoning.