| As the most important social and economic phenomena, urbanization has become a hot topic in academic circles in recent years. The procedure of urbanization is closely related with regional economic development. The level and procedure of urbanization is determined by the level of economic development, and the external economic caused by urbanization become an important driving force in economic development。In accordance with the economic point of view, economic development is the most fundamental lifeblood of urban development。The scale of city size (including population, land use) and the level of urbanization, in essence, will depend on the strength of the city's economic strength. Urban development needs huge capital investments, which includes production inputs and a lot of public input。If capital investment is lower than the minimum urbanization economic cost, urban development and urbanization process will be constrained, Therefore, study on the economic costs of urban development have great significance in the sustainable development of city. The analysis of economic costs of urbanization requires the theoretical framework of the scientific system, Therefore, the composition of urbanization and economic accounting system of theory and practice become more urgent.Based on explaining concept of city,urbanization,,cost,urbanization cost. Using the theory of geography, economics and labor economics and the basic principles of integrated urban economics, public economics, industrial economics, development economics, urban geomorphology, demography and other disciplines related to theoretical knowledge, discusses the recognition and measurement the elements of the urbanization economic costs. analysis of factors affecting the economic costs of urbanization。Then, make economic costs of urbanization study of Guiyang City as the empirical case study, calculate the economic investment for Guiyang City development in the future. This article aims to forecast funds needed for urban development through measurement model of economic costs of urbanization. It is also our hope to introduce the concept of economic cost in order to increase the operational and scientific city planning in the future.The main results are as follows:1.based on the concept of generalized cost, defining and identifying the narrow economic costs of urbanization and its components; the economic costs of urbanization form by the jobs investment cost, investment cost of urban land, urban infrastructure investment costs and City management investment costs. Pointed out the natural environment, regional economic development, urban type and nature of government policies are the main factors of economic costs.2. Construct econometric models of economic costs of urbanization from the broad and narrow perspective. With the theory of labor economics, industrial economics theory, construct the calculation method of elements of urbanization economic costs. The narrowed economic costs of urbanization is expected to regarded as a means of measuring model in forecasting the minimum economic investment in urban developmentEstablish the measurement methods of the constituent elements after analyzing the various elements of narrowed economic costs of urbanization.3. Empirical analysis of economic costs of urbanization of Karst mountain city Guiyang.By use of time-series data and interface data, analyzing the development and urbanization situation of the Guiyang city, calculating the economic costs of Guiyang city from the narrow and broad scales. The results indicates that: the narrowed economic costs of urbanization was￥17.15 person; General economic cost is￥515. 73 billion/one percentage point.4. Through analyzing the various elements of economic costs of Guiyang City on both qualitative and quantitative. The results show that Karst topography has a significant effect on infrastructure investment costs.The difference are very clear in the cost of employment investment among Enterprises of different industries, different sizes and different ownership.5. Forecast the level of urbanization of Guiyang with economic factors analysis and trend extrapolation.The level of urbanization Guiyang City will reach 66.71%, 70.13%,73.41%in 2010,2015,2020.6. During the period of 2011-2015,2016-2020, to achieve the expected targets investment of Y999.93 billion and Y 1463.99 billion at least are required in Guiyang city.Under the assumption that the government will be the main urban development investor, we can predict the amount of funds of Guiyang City in development for the responding period, based on the future financial income of Guiyang city,is￥678.10billionto￥1077.852billion,so the there is vaseneck for forcasting the urbanization development of Guiyang city. 7. Proposal in adjusting the industrial structure, developing and recommending reasonable urban development strategies to reduce the economic costs of urbanization and achieve the urbanization development expected targets of Guiyang City.Finally, the paper summarizes the results of the study and pointes out that the form identification and measurement methods of economic costs of urbanization needed to be further studied. |
