Resource And Ecological Capacities And Ecological Security Evaluation Of Heilongjiang Province

Along with scientific technology development at vast speed in latter-day, the world economy advances rapidly, and the human society enters into a new history phase. At the same time, environment pollution and ecological destroy emerge day by day. Ecological security restricts the regional sustainable development and becomes a major problem which is widely regarded by the world. Ecological security is the important aspect that affects the state security and sustainable development. It is the base and carrier of the other security. In order to study the ecological security systematically, the estimating method includes assessing the ecological security status, forecasting the development trend and regulation in the thesis. Ecological security quantitative assessment and dynamic research still under the explore stage by the domestic and overseas research. It is seldom to take the province as an object and combine the ecological province construction to study the ecological security assessment, forecasting and adjustment.It utilizes the relative resource capacity and ecological footprint model and by ecological security systemic evaluating to quantitative analysis the ecological security status of Heilongjiang Province. It applies the Press-State-Response model, Analytical Hierarchy Process, Grey Theory and Factor Analysis to discuss the methods of ecological security assessment, forecasting and regulation. It suggests the ecological security adjustment policy. The research has innovation meaning. The results are in favor of the work for ecological construction and ecological environment protect in Heilongjiang Province. It is contributed to comprehend deeply the regional ecological system response for the global movement. It aims to supply the data support and theory guide for establishing the strategy and measure and assessing the ecological security construction.The study identifies the command ecological system status in Heilongjiang Province and confirms the existent problems in ecological environment. It applies relative resource capacity model and ecological footprint model, and improves the relative resource capacity model. It collects the time serial statistic data (1995-2006) for quantitative calculating. By assessing the ecological, environment and economy sustainable development, it demonstrates the necessity and urgency for studying the ecological security assessment, forecasting and adjustment in Heilongjiang Province. The results show that the natural resource capacity support the development of Heilongjiang Province. The ecological capacity is ecological deficit from 1995 to 2006. It accords with the fact of Heilongjiang Province.Combining the actual characteristic of Heilongjiang Province, it frames the Press-State-Response model to build the ecological security assessment index. There are 28 indicators. By contrasting the weighting methods, it applies the Analytical Hierarchy Process with MATLAB6.5 to calculate the weights of the indicators. It uses the Ecological Security Index model to classify the ecological security status for the years of 1999-2006. By analyzing the ecological security succession, it confirms the ecological security grade in Heilongjiang Province during the year of 1999-2006. The results show that the ecological security index presents increasing trend, especilally from the ecological province construction in 2000. The ecological security grade grows to the high level.Base on the grey characteristic of the ecological security system, combining the weights by Analytical Hierarchy Process, it chooses 9 indicators as the ecological security key factors from Press-State-Response model. It applies Grey Relational Analysis to sequence the ecological security key factors and confirms the most influence factor. The most important indicator is gross industrial output value, the much important indicator is per capita gross domestic product, and the third is percentage of urban air quality reachedâ…¡standard. Contrasting the forecasting model and methods, it chooses Grey Dynamic Model with MATLAB6.5 to compile the calculate program for GM(1,1). Over passing the accuracy test, it forecasts the ecological security development trend for the year 2007-2010. It offers a stability base for ecological security forecasting and adjustment.According to the results of Grey Relational Degree, it regulates the ecological security by adjusting the industrial structure. It uses Factor Analysis with SPSS to calculate the sequences of the 19 industries. On the basis of the industry development status, it screens out the leading industry (Equipment manufactury, Petrified industry, Energy industry) and mainstay industry (Food industry). For the economy and society sustainable development, it builds the regional ecological security strategically policy framework and it suggests the ecological security adjustment policy. It will accelerate sustainable development of the compound ecological system, and guarantee the ecological security state.