The Theory And Countermeasure Study On The Harmonious Development Between Electric Power Industry And National Economy In China

Since 1997,the contradiction between the electric power industry and national economy in china shows the different character each year which has a bad effect on the development of society.There is little effect with the actions which government had taken to resolve the problem.The main representation is with the slowdown of the pace of development after the Asian financial crisis in 1997 that China bid farewell to shortage of electricity power and had entered a stage of relative surplus.Since 2000,electricity demand starts to recover,with the rapid growth of electricity consumption for the four consecutive year,and a serious power shortage situation was being again.China's 24 provinces had restrictions on electricity in 2004.And the national electric power gap is more than 31,000,000 kilowatts.According to the statistics of National Development and Reform Commission,the illegal projects had a total of 125,000,000 kilowatt early in 2007,which to a large extent also appeared an blindly and disorderly situation in the building of the power.The existence of differences power supply and demand in different regions,and the grid structure and capability of peaking were weak.As a result,the internal structure of the power industry is imbalance,which couldn't meet the requirement of the national economic development on the power supply quantity and quality.In fact,the govemment's power industry policies changed frequently and had been unable to find an effective solution.This reflected the contradictory between the power industry and the national economy was complex,but also reflected the current policy-makers could not accurately grasp nature of the properties of the contradictory between the power industry and the national economy.Its deep-seated reason was that there were some profound theoretical issues behind the contradictory,whereas the theory of industrial organization and economic theory of regulation could not be ready to provide the research which could be directly applied to the vertical relationship and the corresponding economic regulation.In this sense,the existing theory was out of touch with reality.In order to solve the contradiction between China's power industry and national economy, it is necessary to accurately grasp the character of the contradiction as well as the key factors that affected the relationship.The main contents of the study are:the first part is includes the introduction and the literature review.The main aim is to put forward the question from the practice,and to find the limitations of analysis of relevant theories,so as roger a clear objective of the study.The second part includes the third,fourth and five chapters,which are mainly on the analysis and evaluation of the coordinated development of relations between power industry and national economy.First of all,we see the power industry as a separate stand-alone system,and analyse the relationship between the power industry and the national economic system.We use the GDP and data of the electric power dustry in 1996-2006 to ananlyse the relationship between the supply and demand of electricity and economic growth.We evaluate the coordinated development of the power industry and national economic system in 1987-2006.At last,the paper forecast the data from 2008 to 2012 based on the gray prediction model and analyse the coordinate development of the power industry. and national economic system.The third part includes sixth and seventh chapters.Based on the result of the analysis of the coordination between the power industry and national economic,we present the policy recommendations from the supply side and demand-side on how to promote the coordinated development of the power industry and national economy.The fourth part of this paper is to sum up,this article summarized the main conclusions of the study,as well as problems.This study's main innovation are reflected in the following areas:First of all,the current study mainly used a direct general regression analysis to analyse the relationship between China's national economy and the power industry,but not make the test about the existence of long-term and stable relationship of cause and effect before the test regression analysis,it is a matter of methods issues.In this paper,we use the dynamic econometric models,including a smooth sequence analysis of the sequence,the two co-integration analysis and Granger causal analysis,to test the coordinated relations between national economy and the power industry on the basis of the application of China's 1996-2006 data.Second,the current study analyzed relations between the power industry and the national economy,but didn't analyzed the coordinated development of relations between them.Whatmore the study can not identify the factors which affected the development of power industry and the factors which have an important role in the impact of the national economy.This study define the connotation of the coordinated development of power industry and national economy.So far,there isn't a accordant model about coordination,So this paper use three models,including entropy equation,coupled coordination model and gray model to evaluate the coordinated development of China's national economic growth and power industry.Third,after analysis of the coordinated development of China's national economy and power industry in 1987-2006,we use gray prediction to predict the indicators from 2008 to 2012,and then the coordination relations had forecast.It is worth emphasizing that,it is necessary to construct a solid foundation for micro-industry chain to achieve real long-term goals,which should seek a solution from the arrangements of the power industry based on the encourage of manufacturers.Government should encourage the electric power industy to be vertical integration,and first of all the government's energy management instructures are the basis.In addition,taking into account the characteristics of China's national economic development,the government should plan the China's economic development from the perspective of the overall arrangement of energy strategy.