Method And Application Study Of Investment Evaluation Consider Uncertainties In Electric Power Market

In recent years more and more countries have reformed their traditional structure of power industry,and have gradually established power markets,where regulation has been somewhat relaxed.Although these new power markets have different characteristics,the most significant one is the volatility of price,and the uncertainties brought forward to the participants' behavior like investment,operation and marketing.For the participants in power market,since short-term uncertainties are easier to recognize and mitigate,they tend to chose short-term decision when they are expecting a high level of risk.To manage or mitigate short-term uncertainties,it is common to use financial tools in previous research,however,as to the problem of how to handle the effect of uncertainties on long-term decision,there is still very few research findings.China's power industry is in the initial phase of a market-oriented reform,and there are also many uncertainties in the current market environment.The main purpose of the theoretical and empirical research in this paper is to solve the problem of how to proceed with long-term investment decision-making,when the degree of uncertainty about the future is quite high and can not be simulated.Therefore,we proposed an"investment assess model under power market environment with uncertainties",in which flexible decision is introduced in order to deal with long-term risk.For power generation business,decision-making is how to expand capacity,and for the users,it is how to proceed with the purchase of electricity.Based on the artificial intelligence decision-making system,the structure of long-term decision-making is established,including scenario set up module,question formation and attribute assessment module,as well as the power market multi-agent system and decision-support system.The focus of the attribute assessment program is how to considering uncertainties in the agent-based simulation analysis,and how to use the flexibility of strategy. In this paper we use real option and fuzzy set theory to form two investments attribute assessment method.Among these two methods,real option theory is applied on the value of investment strategy with flexibility,and the value of different investment strategies are analyzed and compared;and as the supplement to the first method,fuzzy set theory is applicable in the untypical market with incomplete information,inadequate data,and a random pattern,and is used to deal with some fuzzy factors which are difficult to quantify. Based on the preliminary theory,the following three aspects of is studied:1)Agent simulation method has been applied to a practical power system;2)for an actual power generator, long-term investment planning of its capacity expansion is proposed,and the related investment attributes are assessed;3)optimize program to purchase electricity is established for an actual power user.The research of this paper shows that the long-term investment decision-making method consider flexible strategy is feasible,for its realization of the value of flexible strategy in the investment decision behavior of market participants.We also draw conclusion that with the application of real options method on the simulation of uncertainties,and with the use of fuzzy set theory on the combination strategy of some fuzzy factors,the two methods are applicable to assess the investment strategy;and moreover,agent-based market simulation model is effective for the scenario of future electricity market.