| This essay studies the mechanism of the manipulation through applying microstrcture theory, then finding the factors of influencing the manipulator to make decisions, finally establishing the econometric model and finding heel of Alewcas. Therefore, it is significant in pratics and in theory innovation.The essay mainly examines the conditions stimulating the futures market manipulation , such as the market structure under the China's special circumstances. It establishes some mathematical model about the impacts on probilities of futures market manipulation from the variaties'lackage, from the bad-proprotion in the paticipants and from the machinery of the transmiting information , especially the market micro-structure that differs from the developed countries. And then it is designed an econometric model according to the features of the futures manipulation and provides a powerful judging method to control manipulation. At last, it holds up some specific suggestions in developing the futures variaties, fostering the hedgers, reforming the supervising system and improving the supervising technics.It introduces the significance of selecting the topic, the researching methods, the frame of the essay and the essay's innovatings in the first chapter. In the second chapter, it gives a definition of the futures manipulation. And ,the remaind of the chapter is mainly concerned the researching actuality at home and abroad. It studies the manipulation by using micro-structure theory in the foreign literatures, but it doesnot study thoroughly in China. Firstly, it gives an overview to defining the future manipulation in different countries from the law points. Generally, the defining involves three aspects such as artificialness, the market power, and the manipulating intention, but for the manipulating intention, it is not concerned as an element in some judicial systems. In all of the judicial text, the EU's practice, that is, to define the manipulation by generally illustrating and enumerating, is worth to use for reference. The economists'definition is mainly to define it from the price deviation from the equilibrium and the displaying manner of this deviation as well as the welfare loss. They specially impress on the market power and artificialness. The normal definition of the manipulation is from H-S Model which expresses the excess profits in the close circuit trade. The chapter ends with a plain difinition of the futures market manipulation set up by the author.The third, fourth, and fifth chapter establish the mathmatical micro-structure model respectively and examine the relations between the features of the micro-structure and manipulation in China's futures market. The third chapter shows that it causes the incomplete market and some hedgers cannot find the hedging ways due to the variaties'lackage, then leads to the excess speculation and more frequent manipulation events. In the forth chapter, it illustrates it is easy to squeeze to the manipulators because the middle-small speculators has a low financing power from the price auction in the futures market combining with the cluster of the bid price and ask price. It also displays the increased occurrence of the long and short confrontation events due to the existence of enormous middle-small speculators and their following psychonogy. The fifth chapter analyzes by using models and cases the use of the rumour manipulating skills in the futures market from the rumour manipulation in common stock market and explains the principles and skills which the speculators use novel rumour,abuse their authorities to repeatly manipulate the market in the futures market to grt profits.The sixth chapter describes the detecting manipulation by using econometric methods. According to the idea of examing the futures market manipulation is examining the special change of the futures'contract price and the underlying commodities in special place, time, it uses the cointergration, VECM to examine the price's odd movement of the special contracts waiting for examing relative to the other related contracts and confirm the probablity of the contract price be manipulated from the quantity. The last chapter analyzes the factors that influence the probability and degree of the manipulation from the cost point of view. It shows that admending the laws on futures markets,developing the futures variaties, fostering the hedgers, reforming the supervising system and improving the supervising technics are the basis of normalizing and constructing the China's futures market. |
