| In recent years, Chinese macroeconomy has been operating in various conflicts including excess liquidity, asset price inflation, increased foreign trade friction, increased pressure on the renminbi appreciation. The central bank had raised the deposit reserve ratio for 12 times and raised the benchmark of renminbi deposit and lending rate of financial institutions for 10 times, but still failed to reduce inflationary pressures. The central bank's monetary policies have relied more and more on hedging operations and credit control, both being important policy tools. Practical operating difficulties in China stem from the fact that the money supply and the exchange rate both serve as nominal monetary policies anchors: In particular, in the fixed exchange rate system that pegs to the U.S. dollar, when underestimating the renminbi value or weakening dollar appears, Chinese international balance of payments will be a huge surplus and in the compulsory settlement system, the large surplus will cause infusing excessive base money, then under imperfect offset circumstances, the excessive infusion of base money will bring about the formation of asset price bubbles, and the prosperity of the export sector coupled with the excessive market liquidity will encourage prosperous investment, eventually this continued phenomenon will bring inflation into being easily; And on the contrary, when there exists overvalued renminbi or stronger dollar, due to Chinese economy's high dependence on external trade, exports will drop substantially, coupled with long-term insufficient domestic demand in Chinese economy, the original export capacity will cause prices to fall continuously, while the economy is operating in between growth slowdown and price deflation. Perhaps we can attribute the reasons to Chinese economic structural adjustment lag, but it can not be denied that under the background of double nominal anchors of monetary policies, the currency has become an important tool in adding fuel to the flames in propelling economic contraction and expansion. Under Chinese increasing money supply endophytism and the global trend of monetary policies towards the regularity rule rather than discretion rule, the study of Chinese monetary policies transition and its supporting conditions from an all-round, three-dimensional perspective is of great and far-reaching theoretical and practical significance.The full text is divided into seven chapters. It mainly probes into why monetary policies regularity rule is chosen rather than discretion rule, which target-oriented rule better suites to Chinese monetary policies practice, the significance of testing different tool-oriented rules in Chinese monetary policies over the last 10 years, the money supply endophytism and their impact on monetary policies in Chinese macro -economic situation over more than 10 years ,and the path and supporting conditions of Chinese transition to the inflation-targeted rules.The main innovations include: 1. Conduct inspection and analysis of applicability of various rules on Chinese monetary policies from an all-round, multi-dimensional perspective; 2. Conduct tests of various tool-targeted rules on Chinese monetary policies using the same periods of sample data over a longer period, and conduct the comparison between the empirical analysis outcomes of various tool-targeted rules tests based on a greater comparability; 3. Consider the influencing factors of Chinese monetary policies practice in the recent years, and conduct the empirical test of the money supply endophytism. 4. Come up with the scheme that Chinese monetary policies transition process can be divided into the transition period and formal implementation period; 5. Conduct useful thinking about the supporting conditions of Chinese monetary policies' transition to inflation-targeted rule. |
