Prediction Of Liquor Products Market By Random Forest And Rule Ensemble And Development Strategy

Liquor product is traditional industry in China. It plays an important role in na-tional economic development. Market and profit are the base for its surviving and devel-oping. The dependence between liquor output and their influential factors was analyzedby rank correlation coeffcient and Random Forest. The profit of Tianjin Jinjiu Groupwas predicted by ARMA-GARCH and Rule Ensemble. Lastly the future developmentstrategy of Jinjiu Group was suggested.The yearly population, the disposable personal income and the output of alcohol,peer, wine of China different provinces were organized. The Spearman and Kendallrank correlation coeffcients were calculated for each two of them. The result showedthat peer, wine, population and income all have in?uence on alcohol. Therefore, alcoholoutput was considered as dependent variable and the other four indicators as dependencevariables. Their function was fitted by Random Forest and the in?uence strength wasmake out. Partial dependence was plotted.Based on monthly profit of Jinjiu Group from January, 1986 to December, 2006,stationary and ARCH tests manifested that mean of one lag di?erence can be modeledby linear ARMA and variance by GARCH. ARMA(1,14)-GARCH(1,1) was determinedby testing the independence of the residuals. Parameters were estimated by maximumlikelihood function, then future profit was demonstrated.Monthly output, income and tax of the same time of profit in Jinjiu Group wereprepared. Taking profit as output variable and the other three as input variable, theirfunction was fitted by Rule Ensemble. Input variable was predicted by GARCH. Profitwas predicted by substituting predicted input variable to fitted function. Testing resultdemonstrated that Rule Ensemble is superior to GARCH by real profit from January,2007 to June, 2007.Present condition, market character and developing trend of alcohol industry inChina and Tianjin were analyzed. Based on influence strength between alcohol andbeer and wine and predicted profit, the chance, challenge and diffculty of Jinjiu Groupwere explained. Its developing objects, idea and plan were suggested from constructingthree platforms, increasing six kinds of ability, integrating administrate structure andgrouping management mode. All were very useful for Jinjiu Group's expanding.