Study On Outputs Game Models And Chaotic Characters In Electric Power Oligopoly

Chaos Theory has been an interdisciplinary subject for three decades and applied to many practical fields especially in management and economic area. As is well known, the electric economic system is an open complex giant system, and the production process runs in the given economic environment. The output decision in the electric market is a long-term iterative dynamic procession. In this paper, a series of output game models are proposed by introducing the chaotic dynamic theory into the electricity market. The research results show that:1. Under the current electric reform, the electric power manufacturers can make outputs decision themselves, so they have to hunt for the most beneficial strategy and maximize their profits. This paper introduces chaos dynamic theory into the output game of electric power market, which shows some natural characteristics in this complex process. To analyze how the producers determine on the optimal outputs for the maximal profits, we suppose the inverse demand function and cost function are all nonlinear, and the wheeling rate is also taken into account. The producers in different model are differentiated with homogeneous or heterogeneous expectations. Although these methods increase the difficulty of the analysis, the models are more applicable and closer to the actual situation of the electric power market.2. Various numerical results are presented including strange attractors, bifurcation diagrams, Lyapunov exponents and fractal dimension, sensitivity dependence on initial conditions, power spectrum and density cycling. The dynamical behaviors demonstrated in the nonlinear discrete dynamic system and the influences of the parameters on the system are analyzed. These parameters include the adjustment speed of the producers and the wheeling rate.3. The chaotic attractors are found in the simulations with the data of IEEE30 system, and the dynamical behaviors demonstrated in this system are analyzed. This study has important practical significance.4. Chaos control methods are successfully applied to the dynamic repeated game models in electric power oligopoly. The stability control of the period-doubling bifurcation and unstable periodic orbits in the nonlinear discrete dynamic systems is realized. The numerical simulation results show that these control methods are effective. The uniform request of these chaos control methods in this paper is the goals for controlling chaos. That is to say, it is extraordinary important for producers to know that when they can get the maximum profit.The researches in this paper are based on the abstract theoretic models which are more accordant with the reality of the electric power system than the classical Cournot model. The results will provide references for electric power producers to make optimal output decision. The emphasis of future work will concentrate on high dimensional dynamical system modeling, considering perturbation, analyzing and controlling the chaotic characters with data in the real output decision-making system.