The bank system plays a vital role in dealing with the financial crisis, which in the narrow sense can be considered as bank crisis to those countries of bank of dominant position. Since 1980, more than 130 countries, over the 3/4 of the International Monetary Fund, have undergone serious banking scrape. These experiences show that in the period of structural transformation of the whole society, the microcosmic risk and systemic risk of bank conflict, expand and erupt, forming several screens of solemn and stirring scenes of the whole history of banking crisis. Owing to every country's protection and recognition to banking, there is hardly a weighing standard on the erupting condition of the whole banking system. The guideline of the risk regulating of the regulatory authority in existence emphasizes more particularly on microcosmic risks of banking, while the systemic risk cannot be regulated effectively for the sake of the global turbulence and impact of the financial circumstance.Trying to construct a framework of microcosmic theory on the forming of systemic risk of the bank, this paper divides the systemic risk into three parts, which are respectively the springing of the individual banking risk, the forming of the systemic risk of the bank and the variance of the systemic risk of the bank under control of the government. Mainly researching the influence of which the change of the financial order in the opening-up conditions to the risk-springing mechanism of the individual banking system, it takes advantage of the global affairs of the systemic risk of the bank to demonstrate the macrocosmic and microcosmic of the systemic forming of bank. Moreover, it probes into the forming mechanism profitably of the systemic risk of Chinese banks.The whole paper is divided into five chapters, the contents of which are showed as follow: Chapter one, as a general framework of analyzing the systemic risk of the bank, put the research on the systemic risk in the eyeshot of the financial safety, coming out with literature reviews and the latest development of the incidences of the global systemic risk. Further more, combining the systemic origins of the history of financial crisis in the period of the Public of China, it also elicits several researching directions of systemic risk of the bank in the future. First of all, the complex association of financial systems especially that between the financial markets and banking systems and the tempestuously fluctuation of the capital price takes the increasingly evident role of the forming of systemic risk of the bank. Secondly, it is about the relationship between the conformity of the financial system and the systemic risk of the bank. Thirdly, the infective ways of the systemic risk of the bank may change, leading to that more difficult to forecast and manage. Fourthly, the studies on systemic risk of the bank turn to the problems formed in the wholesale level.Chapter two theoretically probes into the forming of the banking systemic risk in the enclosing circumstance, trying to construct the united analyzing framework form the microcosmic financial risk to the systemic risk of the bank. This paper divides the systemic risk into three parts, which are respectively the springing of the individual banking risk, the forming of the systemic risk of the bank and the variance of the systemic risk of the bank under control of the government, emphasizing on the financial order in the opening-up conditions to the risk-springing mechanism of the individual banking system. Using for reference of the model of Diamond's fluidity impact, it creatively inducts the depositors'anticipations, the price fluctuation of the assets and the governmental assurance into the model. It combines the microcosmic fluid management of the bank and the fluid risk of banking system to analyze the influence brought to the fluidity of banking system by different kinds of principal actions, progressing to construct a general analyzing framework springing to the forming of systemic risk of the bank by the risk of individual banks.Chapter three theoretically probes into the forming of systemic risk in the opening-up conditions. This chapter, using for reference of the harvest of last chapter on the forming of systemic risk, researches the forming mechanism of systemic risk of the bank from the framework of the banking assets in debt, the financial framework and the global financial framework. A deeper theoretical analysis on the formation, infection and evolvement of the subprime lending crisis is also carried out with the usage of the model of fluid impact.Chapter four is a demonstrating research on the forming mechanism of systemic risk of the bank in opening-up conditions. This paper, based on the conclusion of the researching methods, kernels and standards in the past, classifies different samples in the world according to the extent of financial opening-up and development with the data of 60 countries in the world in 24 years. In addition, grouping demonstrative studies on the forming mechanism of systemic risk of the bank in opening-up conditions are carried out with the usage of Panel Logit model.Chapter five makes the theoretical and demonstrative analysis on the forming mechanism of systemic risk of the bank in opening-up conditions from the three levels of microcosm, system and demonstration. At the beginning, this chapter demonstrates the springing mechanism of microcosmic risk of Chinese banks through three aspects: the research on the change of debt structures of the banking assets, the mutual impact and the infecting mechanism. Then, probing into the systemic origins of systemic risk of Chinese banks with flexible restricting theory of the budget, sketches the panorama of the systemic origins of systemic risk of Chinese banks. Finally, on the basis of that, it constructs the integrating evaluating model of trinity of the condition of microcosmic risk of the bank, the impact of macrocosmic financial variables and the probability of the potential infections.The innovative points of this paper1. This paper divides the systemic risk into three parts, which are respectively the springing of the individual banking risk, the forming of the systemic risk of the bank and the variance of the systemic risk of the bank under control of the government. Using for reference of the model of Diamond's fluidity impact, it creatively inducts the depositors'anticipations, the price fluctuation of the assets and the governmental assurance into the model. It combines the microcosmic fluid management of the bank and the fluid risk of banking system to analyze the influence brought to the fluidity of banking system by different kinds of principal actions, progressing to construct a general analyzing framework springing to the forming of systemic risk of the bank by the risk of individual banks.2. The extent of financial opening-up and development as controlling variables, grouping demonstrative studies on the forming mechanism of systemic risk of the bank in opening-up conditions are carried out with the usage of Panel Logit model. The passage thus gets the mechanical result produced by the systemic risk of the bank in different conditions.3. This paper makes the theoretical and demonstrative analysis on the forming mechanism of systemic risk of the bank in opening-up conditions from the three levels of microcosm, system and demonstration. On the basis of that, it constructs the integrating evaluating model of trinity of the condition of microcosmic risk of the bank, the impact of macrocosmic financial variables and the probability of the potential infections. |