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Interactive Mechanism And Positive Analysis Of Credit Constraint, Real Estate Price And Macro-economy

Posted on:2010-01-26Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:Z H HuangFull Text:PDF
GTID:1119360272495122Subject:Land Resource Management
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
How to harmonize real estate price and macro-economy is becoming more cared since the 1997 Southeast Asian financial crisis. As the impacts of the current global financial crisis induced by subprime crisis on mostly country's real estate price and macro-economy further emerge, it evokes the questions about credit constraint, real estate price and macro-economy. Do credit constraint, real estate price and macro-economy have interactive relationship between each other? If have, what are the impact mechanism and characteristics of theirs? What are the impact mechanism and characteristics between credit constraint, real estate price and macro-economy in China? How to harmonize the relationship between credit constraint, real estate price and macro-economy? This research motives to analyze these questions.This research mainly consists of four parts, including literature review, different level empirical study, theory and empirical test combined study, international experience. Firstly, literature review examined the relative methods and theory about credit constraint, real estate price and macro-economy. Secondly, empirical study, based on national level data, regional panel data and 35 large and medium-sized cities level panel data, employed VAR model (including VAR model based Granger causality test, impulse response analysis, variance decomposition, and error correction), panel data model (including panel data Granger causality test, dynamic and static panel data model) and GARCH model to analyze the interaction relationship between credit constaint, real estate price and macro-economy. Thirdly, in the theory and empirical test combined study, partial equilibrium analysis and general equilibrium analysis framework were employed to study the interaction relationship between credit constraint, real estate price and macro-economy, combined with empirical test of financial accelerator effect; model analysis, Granger causality test and error correction model were employed to analysis the relationship between bank credit and real estate price; model analysis and regression method were employed to analyze the impact of real estate price change on monetary policy in the last part of theory and empirical test combined study. Finally, we mainly analyze the experience of the interaction relationship between credit constraint, real estate price and macro-economy in American, Southeast Asian and Taiwan district. The main conclusions go as follows.(1) Credit constraint, real estate price and macro-economy have interactive impact mechanism at the national level. The impact chararteristics are: real estate price and macro-economy have significant interactive feedback mechanism; real estate price and macro-economy have long term equilibrium relationship, while they have disequilibrium relationship in the short term; real estate price has significantimpact on consumption and investment.(2) Credit constraint, real estate price and macro-economy have interactive mechanism at the regional level with regional difference. Real estate price could impact macro-economy through channels of impacting consumption and investment.(3) Credit constraint, real estate price and macro-economy have interactive impact mechanism at the city level of Shanghai. Interest rate and macroeconomic factors have significant impact on real estate price with cluster volatility and unsymmetric characteristics.(4) Credit constraint could cause real estate price change and magnify the impact of real estate price on macro-economy.(5) The interactive feedback mechanism of credit constraint, real estate price and macro-economy could acceralate and magnify the impact of different shocks on real estate price and macro-economy.(6) Real estate price has significant impact on the transmission channel of monetary policy. Monetary policy could impact macro-economy through affecting real estate price.(7) Real estate price has significant effect on aggregate demand in China.(8) Credit constraint, real estate price and macro-economy have interactive experience in America, Southeast Asia and Taiwan district.The policy implications are: (1) as credit constraint, real estate price and macro-economy have feedback and interactive mechanism, measures of harmonizing credit constraint, real estate price and macro-economy should be taken; (2) moderation credit constraint, stable real estate price and macro-economy are the key to harmonize credit constraint, real estate price and macro-economy; (3) as real estate price has significant impact on GDP gap, macro control for real estate price should be taken; (4) as real estate price had significant impact on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, monetary policy could be used to control real estate price, which in return is beneficial to stabilize macro-economy.
Keywords/Search Tags:credit constraint, real estate price, macro-economy, interaction mechanism, positive analysis
PDF Full Text Request
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