Analysis Of Oil Security In China With Policy Making

Energy is an important resource and indemnity in a country. Energy security is an important part of economic security, especially petroleum security is a foundation stone of a country security.In this dissertation Chinese petroleum resource condition, production condition, demand condition, challenge and opportunity of Chinese petroleum security, the world resource distribution condition, petroleum transport pattern and so on are mainly analyzed. Along with the economical development under the background of rapidly increasing demand for petroleum, the contradiction and risk of oil resource, petroleum reserve and production relative insufficiency, petroleum import volume climbing up and outward degree of gradually rising demand for petroleum are all tackled in this dissertation.The petroleum supply and demand condition, oil industry and national security and petroleum strategic reserve condition in America, and the petroleum security condition of Japan, Russia, Germany, France and South Korea are all analyzed in detail in the dissertation. Taking into consideration the experiences gained in advanced countries, petroleum security management and policy making in China are analyzed.The condition and situation of petroleum supply and demand are the most important influential factor in petroleum security. Therefore, it is very important to predict a demand for petroleum in the future. Combination prediction theory can draw effective information from single prediction model, so the precision and accuracy of prediction result is improved greatly. On the basis of Chaotic Time Series Method, Self-Adaptive Filtering and Grey Prediction method, the weights in the related methods are determined by the Analytic Hierarchy Process and a prediction model for the petroleum demand is set up on combination prediction theory. The amount of petroleum demand in the future is predicted and the result can be a valuable reference for China to make realistic decision and policies in petroleum security.Chinese economy has become an important part of world economy. The outward degree of Chinese petroleum is increasing sharply every year, and the price of world petroleum is getting more and more influence on Chinese economy and petroleum security. A sensitivity of Chinese petroleum security to fluctuation in the international petroleum price is also analyzed in detail, with a strategy of increase in import petroleum proposed. At the same time petroleum reserve scale is analyzed and estimated on the basis of petroleum price fluctuation.Energy security alarming is a predictive appraisal of a changing tendency of energy system in the future, and problems of the energy system can be early found in order to take measures. A model to analyze and appraise the petroleum security system has been established in this dissertation, and evaluation of the system is carried out based on the principle of support vector machine.The method, SWOT is often used to analyze the internal and external environment in decision making. The target is to determine strength and weakness of an organization and opportunity and threat of surroundings. SWOT system analysis is applied to analysis in the internal and external environment of Chinese petroleum, and the strategic choice of Chinese petroleum in the future is proposed.In the end, the measure and the suggestion on Chinese petroleum security, such as petroleum strategic reserve system construction, fuel taxation, petroleum exploration and exploitation, petroleum futures market, energy structure adjustment, capital operation strategy, petroleum alterative plan and so on, are proposed in this dissertation.