The Study On China's Foreign Dependence For Forest Products Based On Timber Safety

With China's accession to WTO and strengthening of world economic integration, China's foreign dependence for forest products is increasing. And this arise concentration and worry from experts and researchers, who regard that the development of Chinese forest products trade depend too much on international markets, which might bring negative influence on Chinese forestry economy as well as the associated industries. Then, how about Chinese forest products'foreign trade and its dependence? And will the increasing of Chinese foreign dependence bring negative influence on Timber Safety? It is necessary to answer these questions by thorough studies. Also it is helpful for making forest products trade policy. Therefore it is of great theoretical and practical significance.Based on review of theory for foreign trade and economic dependence literature both at home and abroad, this thesis begins with the changes and international comparison of Chinese foreign dependence for forest products, and then uses corresponding theory in international economy and forestry economy, as well as adopts qualitative and quantitative methods, to explore the contribution of foreign trade for forest products to Chinese economic development. Followed is the establishment of moderate foreign dependence for forest products in China. And this thesis concludes with discussion on measures and policies that China can choose in the process of establishment of moderate foreign dependence for forest products.The first chapter is introduction, including research background, significance, content, as well as the frame of this thesis.The second chapter is the definition of conception and the review of theory. The chapter clears main conception in the report such as forest products, the degree of dependence and log equivalence. The chapter also expatiate the theoretical basis of report, which focuses on foreign trade promoting, protecting and international political economy theory. And it also provides brief review of existing studies on dependence both at home and abroad.The third chapter is the status quo and characteristic of foreign dependence for forest products. Based on the analysis of production, trade and consumption for Chinese forest products, the chapter analyses the change characteristic of foreign dependence for Chinese forest products, which show the change not only provide good opportunities but also bring about many challenges for our trade development.The forth chapter is the international comparison of foreign dependence for forest products, mainly comparison of Chinese ones with those of the USA, Japan, Germany and other 14 countries. The results show that the degree of foreign dependence for forest products has relate with forestry resources, national economic development scale and phases, trade manner and other factors. According the cluster analysis, we think both Chinese forest products'export and import dependences are not very high and the main problem is the economic structure.The fifth chapter is the micro-impacts analysis of the fluctuation of foreign dependence for Chinese forest products. The chapter will take China-Myanmar timber trade, China-Russia timber trade and trade frictions recently as cases to analyze the impacts of its fluctuation on China's wood enterprises in a bit to deepen the understanding of reciprocal impacts on China and the world's forest product markets. China's dependency fluctuation will produce profound impacts on China's development of forest product processing industry in some areas, and the direct result of this dependency established on the bases of low leveled international division of labor is the deterioration of trade conditions and the frequency of foreign trade conflicts.The sixth chapter is the macro-impacts analysis of the fluctuation of foreign dependence for Chinese forest products. The chapter will try to use CGE model to comprehensively evaluate the influence of foreign trade fluctuation for forest products to Chinese economic development. It is found that although the proportion of forest product industry in the whole national economy is tiny, the fluctuation of forest products trade could not causing turbulence to the entire national economy, but the changes of foreign dependence for Chinese forest products are the unavoidable impacts on economic prosperity, business development and people's employment.The seventh chapter is to analyze the Timber Safety and foreign dependence for forest product. The chapter discusses which degree is a"moderate"one to scale the foreign dependence, which will not only satisfy the demand of national economy and social development, but also realize China's Timber Safety.The eighth chapter is the establishment of forest products ' foreign dependence based on the Timber Safety thought. According to the real situation and the demand of Timber Safety in China, the chapter will carry out the measures and policies for the establishment of moderate foreign dependence for forest products.And the last chapter makes overview of the above analysis.