Economic, Ecological And Social Effect Evaluation Of Dry Land Technology

Evaluation of dry land Technology is one of the import components in agriculture evaluation. There have been quite amount of researches on dry land technology evaluation by scientists both in China and abroad. However, due to the reasons that dry land system is a comprehensive and complicated agriculture eco-system, and agriculture activities is very diversified in their objectives, the evaluation methods and evaluation indicator for dry land technologies varies greatly. In this paper, a comprehensive method combining weighted evaluation and growth rate and stability evaluation is adopted and the economic, ecological and social effects of six major dry land technologies practiced in Hebei Province were assessed.Three first grade indicators including economic effect, ecological effect and social effect, and ten second grade indicators such as economic effect increase per unit of area, water use efficiency, etc were determined. Delphi method was used in the determination of weight for every indicator. Based on the researches of theories and methods of dry land technology assessment both abroad and at home, a set of indicators were established and a model of weighted evaluation and a model for efficiency growth rate and stability evaluation were developed. A data treatment method were proposed to make the data of different technologies and different indicators comparable. With the developed weighted evaluation model and the growth rate and stability analysis model, the six technologies were comprehensively evaluated. The results show the followings:Plastic mulching technique.Plastic mulching technique had a very good ecological and comprehensive effect, and with a very good growth rate and stability. Among the six techniques, the weighted value of ecological effect of the technique ranked the first, valued at 8.933365. The comprehensive effects of this technique the second place, valued at 10.58796. The growth rate of economic, social and comprehensive effect performed well, ranking the second place with a growth index at 3.46879, 1.23336 and 1.84177 respectively. The stability of economic effect of this technique showed the best performance among the six techniques, valued at 0.97698.Straw mulching technique.This technique had a poor performance in economic, ecological, social and comprehensive effect in the weighted evaluation, ranking the fifth and sixth place. But the technique had a very good stability in economic, ecological and comprehensive effect. Its social effect stability ranked the first valued at 0.98369.Wheat zero-tillage technique.Wheat aero-tillage technique did not perform well among the six techniques in economic, ecological, social and comprehensive effect. However its ecological effect had a fast and stable growth. The growth rate of ecological effect of this technique ranked the first place valued at 2.39422, and had very good stability.Pipeline irrigation technique. The technique performed very well in economic, ecological and comprehensive effects. Its economic and comprehensive effect in weighted evaluation ranked first place among all the techniques which valued at 20.21752 and 10.59772 respectively. Although the growth rate of this technique ranked in the middle place, it had a very good stability in economic, ecological, social and comprehensive effect, all valued at over 0.9.Agronomic water-saving irrigation technique.This technique had a very good social effect, which its social effect ranked the first place valued at 5.70307. Its growth rate in economic, social and comprehensive effects ranked the first place valued at 7.2134, 2.32743 and 3.7695 respectively, and its ecological effect growth rate ranked the second place valued at 0.61967. This technique also had a good stability, the stability of ecological and economic effect ranked the second places valued at 0.97420 and 0.97273 respectively.Corn zero-tillage technique.Corn zero-tillage technique performed well in its economic effect, ranking the second place in the weighted evaluation, valuaed at 18.62831. The technique had a very good stability in all the indicators, and its stability for ecological and comprehensive effects ranked the first place, valued at 0.98227 and 0.97982 respectively.Based on the above evaluation and the ecological distribution of the dry land agriculture of Hebei Province, strategy for sustainable dry land agricultural development for different dry land regions of Hebei Province was proposed.