A Study On Early-warning And Management Of Agricultural Product Market Risks

The era of short supply of agricultural products in the Chinese market is over now. Buyers are playing a more and more important role in the agricultural product markets. The corresponding changes of the correlation between supply and demands to the agricultural products have caused severe competition in the market and market risks have occurred more frequently than ever. Consequently, farmers are exposed to bigger risks in the market of agricultural products, especially since China joined WTO. The agricultural product market risks include the uncertainties in estimating not only losses but also profits. This kind of risks should be removed via improving the managing levels. Therefore, new management concepts, techniques and methods have to be introduced in order to achieve the innovation on the management of agricultural product market risks. The purposes of studying on the pre-warning and management of agricultural product market risks are to improve the management levels in agricultural production, shorten macro-control time lag in supply and demand to agricultural products and stabilize or increase farmers'income. Therefore, the study on the early-warning of agricultural product market risks is not only conducive to development in the theory but also conducive to practice..The early-warning of agricultural product market risks was systematically studied according to the relation between supply and demand of agricultural products, futures and options, and game theories, based on the guidelines of warning source analyses, the construction of early-warning index systems, the early-warning and prediction-control of risks. The content of this study covers the basic analyses to the early-warning of agricultural product market risks and to the warning sources, the construction of the early-warning index systems about agricultural product market risks, and the prediction-control strategies against agricultural product market risks.(1) The basic analyses on the early-warning of agricultural product market risks Based on the characteristics of agricultural product market risks and the forms of agricultural product risks, the fundamental theories on the early-warning of agricultural product market risks, including the structures, the functions and the operation mechanisms on the early-warning systems of agricultural product market risks are discussed and meanwhile the methods to the yellow early-warning of agricultural product market risks are selected as the methods early to warn agricultural product market risks.(2) The analyses of the warning sources of agricultural product market risks The warning sources of agricultural product market risks are composed of the production manners, the distribution status, the demand transformation and the supply and demand surroundings of agricultural products. The individual farmer operation is the main management method of agricultural production in China. According to marketability of agricultural products produced, farmers can be divided into three types: the self-supported, market orientated and those between the above two types. Based on the analysis of the production mode, cost effect and distribution channels of agricultural products, the article pointed out that most farmers should be charged with market risks. However, the capabilities of the farmers to bear these risks are different according to the difference in production levels and categories. The selections of distribution channels of agricultural products decide whether farmers are wholly charged with market risks or partly. According to the analyses to the transformed demand status of agricultural products, it could be concluded that the transformations of demands to agricultural products between rural residents and urban residents would cause the demand changes of income elasticitiies to agricultural products; the demand to agricultural products in processing and foodstuff industries would sharply increase in the future. Meanwhile, the exports of preponderant agricultural products, for example, fruit, vegetable and aquatic products would increase in competitive international markets. The instability of the supply and demand environment of agricultural product has added up to the possibility of the risks. In conclusion, the factors to influence the agricultural product market risks exist in various aspects of the systems and environments of the supply and demand of agricultural products through analyzing the warning sources. In addition, the analyses of the warning sources of agricultural product market risks has set the foundation for the construction of the early-warning index systems on agricultural product market risks and for the decision of the prediction-control strategies.(3) The construction of early-warning index systems about agricultural product market risks Based on analysis of warning sources of agricultural product market risks and of the price risks of agricultural products, the early-warning index systems of crop, fruit and pork price risks were constructed; The early-warning index systems of credit and policy risks were established; and the fuzzy discriminating models of the early-warning indexes(4) The studies on the early-warning models of agricultural product market risks Firstly, early-warning models were constructed. BP artificial neural network models were selected as the frameworks of early-warning models to early warn the price and policy risks of agricultural products, the early-warning signal output systems of credit, policy, and price risks were settled, the false and leaked warning and construction problems of the early-warning systems of agricultural product market risks were discussed; secondly, Real cases were studied, in which pork price risk models were successfully constructed on the basis of BP artificial neural networks, and emulation tests were conducted with a mathematic software MATLAB to testify that applying BP artificial neural network models to establish the early-warning systems of agricultural product price risks were feasible.(5) The prediction-control strategies against agricultural product market risks The prediction-control strategies against agricultural product market risks were researched in allusion to the market policies, the markets of agricultural product futures and options, contract agriculture and farmer working. Chinese market policy systems of agricultural products just as crop market policy of "to be intervened by price and fund by government ", pork market policy of "to imburse individual deposit and quality checking", and other agricultural product policy of " to set up farmers' fund" were constructed via economic analyses to main market policy means of agricultural products according to experience of developed countries and Chinese actual complexion. Futures and option markets of agricultural products are ideal place to transfer the agricultural product market risks. It was advanced actively to cultivate medi-organizations and organized investors, to improve the main body structures of markets, to increase trade sorts of agricultural products, to expand the trade scales of futures markets, to perfect countrywide trade platforms based on electronic futures and options, and to form uniform price systems of agricultural products in order to perfect Chinese futures and option markets of agricultural products. Meanwhile, it should be established option markets of agricultural products as soon as possible. In addition, the contract agriculture is also a means to detract agricultural product market risks. It is essential to achieve the functional system innovation of contract agriculture in order to combine the contract agriculture with futures and option markets of agricultural products, to transfer one-off contracts into lasting contracts to make them become to "the contracts carried out by themselves "and to make onefold selling contracts become to the new operational mechanisms covering the functions of contracts and services. Farmers are main producing bodies of agricultural products and main undertakers of agricultural product market risks, so the farmers should enhance market risk consciousness, decrease the production lost of agricultural products, carry out various managements, improve distribution techniques to agricultural products, and gradually achieve the industrialized management of agricultural production in order to realize the prediction-control against agricultural product market risks.The innovations in this study mainly include:â‘ the analytical framework of early-warning and management to agricultural product market risks under the guides of warning analytical theories, the constructing theories on early-warning index systems, and the theories on early-warning and management. The early-warning and prediction-control technology against agricultural product market risks were studied, based on the characteristics and expressive forms of agricultural product market risks;â‘¡the price risk early-warning models were set up, based on BP artificial neural networks, and pork price risk early-warning as an example was used to verify the established early-warning models on the market risks;â‘¢the early-warning models of credit risks and changeable agricultural policy risks were constructed, using index methods of early-warning, to settle theoretic bases for the models to be further used;â‘£The basic policy frameworks of agricultural product markets, that is, Chinese market policy systems of main agricultural products, just as crop market policy of "to be intervened by price and fund by government ", pork market policy of "to imburse individual deposit and quality checking", and other agricultural product policy of " to set up farmers' fund", were constructed, using foreign experiences for reference.