Study Of GDP Increase And The Influencing Factors In Chengdu Based On Self-Organization Theory

Contrapose the problems and shortcomings of the modeling and researching metholds in the past, in order to avoiding the factitious effect, retaining objectivity and veracity of the model, a new method is suggested to study GDP increase of Chengdu. It is Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH). GMDH is a method of designing model by data handling, which is similar to the process of envolvement, and it make easier to understand the discipline by the result of model. The model including GDP as well as other many factors of economy designed by GMDH is based on Chengdu economic data. Inherence of many factors is analyzed in-depth by the main result of model, and improvement of step, policy and so on, are suggested.Main research contents follows:Chapter One: introduction.It puts forward the questions, makes clear objective and train of thought, summarizes the status interior and overseas and summarizes the main contents.Chapter Two: The theory and method of Self-organizing data mining. Production and shortage is summarized about study of GDP growth. Group method data handling (GMDH) is suggested as a new method to study. It is found that Group method data handling (GMDH) is very important to studying economic GDP increase of Chengdu in that holding economy of Chengdu rise fleetly.Chapter Three: self-organization model for GDP increase in ChengDu. Model of GDP growth about Chengdu is designed by GMDH according as data in statistics yearbook of Chengdu, parameters are adjusted continually and time length is selected to make model of GMDH, and important factors are found to effect GDP growth by comparison with data of china GDP growth.Chapter Four: the influence and analysis of GDP increase in ChengDu by investment & consumption. The relationship between the GDP growth of chengdu and investment & consumption are studied deeply. The model is designed by expanding the Production Function of Cobb-Gouglas. At the same time, investment and consumption are lucubrated to find the main factors that effect development of Chengdu by model of econometrics, and pertinent policy is given to the government of Chengdu.Chapter Five: the influence and analysis of GDP increase in ChengDu by industry structure. The power of economic development about Chengdu is analyzed using Shift-share Method (SSM) , based on understanding actuality of industrial structure. At the same time, the four dominant industries of secondary industry are studied using Location Quotient, finding that the pharmaceutical industry,electronic and information industry have higher location quotients,which are the superior industries of chengdu, and suggest the direction and measure about adjustment of industrial structure.Chapter Six: the influence and analysis of GDP increase in ChengDu by Urbanization. Urbanization is one of the most important factors that effect GDP growth. The nonlinear relation between Urbanization and economic growth is studied using regression analysis, and Granger Causality Test. The model is designed quantitatively and qualitatively to rapid Urbanization by econometrics, especially using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to evaluate the model on quality. It is found that ChengDu has better hardware and infrastructure, poorer software, laggard culture. The suggestion, that advance Urbanization ratio and quality, is raised to keep economic development rapidly.Chapter Seven: the influence and analysis of GDP increase in ChengDu by The non-quantitative. The non-quantitative factors that effect GDP growth of Chengdu are analyzed, and we put forward many ideas to Chengdu government, including building service government, innovating finance body, improving efficiency of finance, in order to accelerate GDP growth.Chapter Eight: the analysis of Green GDP in ChengDu. Green GDP is suggested to analyze the economic development in order to keep it growth fast and health. Green GDP is calculated by subtracting the natural resource depletion and environmental losses from GDP. Economic growth in relation to GDP is contrasted with green GDP, and sustainable development strategy is suggested guiding by science development view in order that economic development become continuable and intensive.