Study On Waterborne Petroleum Logistics System And Distribution & Transportation Network Of China

As one of the largest amount of waterborne cargos in China, the characters of petroleum transport are huge in logistics network, vast in material variety, complicated in transport organizing, and so on. While the conception of logistics is deepened day by day, we are required to research, layout and construct the international and national waterborne petroleum logistics and distribution network system according to the idea of logistics system engineering. This paper was mainly aimed at establishing optimal models of waterborne petroleum logistics system, researching its arithmetic, and providing a layout project and some advices. The following research works were taken out in this paper.(1) Based on studying and discussing large numbers of literatures on petroleum logistics and waterborne petroleum logistics both here and abroad, the connotation and component factors of petroleum logistics were defined, and the structures and complexities of petroleum logistics system were analysed. Furthermore, the meaning and functional factors of waterborne petroleum logistics system were defined, and the contents and systems of waterborne petroleum logistics system research were submitted.(2) A system dynamics model of waterborne petroleum logistics system was established. It had been accomplished macro-policies simuational verification on some primary indexes, which could affect waterborne petroleum logistics system. Through simulating the operation mechanism of waterborne petroleum logistics system by established model, the primary environmental parameters and control variables, which could affect waterborne petroleum logistics system, were provided.(3) Rational layout for Chinese waterborne petroleum logistics system was based on scientific forecast for the development trends of waterborne petroleum logistics system. Based on establishing System Dynamics, Grey System, Regression Analysis, and other monomial forecasting models, a linear programming combined forecasting model with minimal error was submitted. Moreover, this method was applied on supply and demand forecasting of Chinese waterborne petroleum logistics, and provided...