R&D Project Schedule Risk Analysis Method Based On Process Integration And Its Application

R&D projects have some characteristics such as high technology, long life cycle, and large investment scale, which results in remarkable schedule risk problem. Once R&D projects cannot be delivered in time, a lot of economic loss will happen and the loss even extends to larger problems because it makes the investors lose a competition chance. Therefore, it is of very importance to perform schedule risk analysis before the implementation of R&D project.However, there are some common problems in existing schedule risk analysis method. For example, it is difficult to ensure the reasonability of schedule risk analysis object and topN schedule risk factors, the optimization of schedule plan is always broken by schedule risk management measures, and few researches fully considered activity iteration and overlapping in R&D project. To solve these problems, this thesis takes schedule risk analysis process integration as guidelines, presents a R&D project schedule risk analysis method based on process integration (SRABPI), which provides a new way and new methods for schedule risk analysis of R&D project. The main contents and fruits of this thesis are outlined as follows:Firstly, SRABPI idea is presented and SRABPI framework is constructed from several aspects such as body, connotation, processes, methods, management organization, and relations between SRABPI and project risk management. SRABPI integrates three sequential processes of classical schedule risk analysis method, namely project schedule planning, project schedule risk assessment, and project schedule risk management planning, into one process, which avoids the same difficulties as above and reveals the idea of system optimization. Secondly, by integrating the advantages of multi-view modeling idea and relation modeling method, a compound multi-view quantitative model (CMVQM) of R&D process is constructed according to the requirements of SRABPI. Relation upstream downstream based DSM (UDBD) is defined to avoid singleness of classical DSM and it reinforces the capability to describe activity relations; iteration UDBD is defined to describe multi iteration modes of activities; overlapping UDBD make it possible to describe activity overlapping with matrix. Futhermore, a scheduling pretreatment process is proposed to integrate the information of different views, thus the information of CMVQM can support two processes of schedule risk assessment and schedule risk management planning directly.Thirdly, a schedule risk assessment method based on single mode stochastic resource constrained project scheduling problem model is presented. Once the model solution is determined, the optimal schedule plan as well as schedule risk of this schedule plan will be determined too. It is useful for the decision of risk optimal schedule plan and provides an evidence for schedule risk management. During the solving courses, a full priority based...