Rmb Real Exchange Rate Misalignment Measure, Effect And Correction

This paper made an analysis of the measurement of real RMB exchange rate misalignment, its effect and correction, and according to the result of the research, this paper scored the policy of stable RMB without depreciation during Asian financial crisis and the policy of stable RMB without appreciation between 2002 and 2004, and viewed the future exchange rate policy of RMB. The method used in this paper included Johansen test in cointegration test, E-G two step method in cointegration test, Granger causality test, bound test in cointegration test, correlation analysis, OLS and so on.The followings are the main results:First, on the basis of RMB's ERER model, the economic variables related to equilibrium real exchange rate of RMB are terms of trade, degree of openness, and government expenditure, total factor productivity. On the basis of RMB's BEER model, the economic variables related to equilibrium real exchange rate of RMB are terms of trade, degree of openness, and foreign net asset. The equilibrium real exchange rate of RMB has a trend to depreciation. From the model of RMB structural change equilibrium real exchange rate model, the economic variables related to equilibrium real exchange rate of RMB are terms of trade, degree of openness, and government expenditure. The equilibrium real exchange rate of RMB had a structural change in 1994.Second, there are uncertainties of equilibrium real exchange rate of RMB and the measurement of real exchange rate misalignment of RMB. The selection of equilibrium real exchange rate model, functional form of the model and the estimation method have effects on equilibrium real exchange rate of RMB and the measurement of real exchange rate misalignment of RMB.Third, after enough consideration of the uncertainty of equilibrium real exchange rate of RMB and the measurement of real exchange rate misalignment of RMB, equilibrium real exchange rate of RMB trends to be depreciation. Between 1980 and 1994, the equilibrium real exchange rate of RMB took on comparatively...