Analysis Of The Features Of The Business Cycles In The Transient China And Studies On The Application Of The Monitoring Methods

Before the 1980s, studies on business cycles were not allowed in China and it was not until the middle of 1980s did the studies on business cycles come forth and develop deeply from then on. In 2003,the Central Economic Affairs Meeting advanced that"Now, China's economy is during the upward phase of the business cycle". It was the first time that the Central Economic Affairs Meeting adopted the concept of"business cycle"to analyze and judge the state of macro-economy, and thus put forward new tasks for the studies on the business cycles in our country. This paper aims to introduce various modern international techniques and apply them to analyze and monitor the business cycles and describe and analyze the features of business cycles in the transient China. Based on these studies, we can observe the fluctuating situation of macro-economy timely and provide reference for the government to decide macroeconomic policies.Studies on business cycles develop mainly in two directions. On the one hand, various macroeconomic schools brought forward abundant classical theories to explain the causes and nature of business cycles, and through these theories, we can analyze which macroeconomic shocks bring about business cycles and how they transmit into the various fields of macroeconomic system. This paper sums up the evolution of theories on forming mechanism of the business cycles and introduces the major views of various schools. On the other hand, many economists, through statistical analysis, measured the features of business cycles, including the duration period, amplitude and types etc. They monitored and forecasted business cycles through a lot of observed economic variables and depicted the macroeconomic state and features. Monitoring the...