Studies On The Expansion-Contraction Law And Turning Points Of Power Demand Cycle In China

Learned from the fact that China has experienced the large-scale electric power demand expansion and contraction, in order to avoid electric power shortage in the future, it is essential to systematically research on the questions of national power demand cycle and the turning point for the fast-growing economy. In the market economy environment, when the total power demands and social supplies change, the market inevitably responds to that. So if the power system cannot grasp the rule of power demand cycle fluctuation, it is unable to deal with the market change and satisfy the power demand of the entire society.Fundamental research of power demand cycle lags behind the actual need, so it is significant to do the research of power demand cycle and the turning points. At the same time correctly understanding and grasping the rule of power demand cycle fluctuation is helpful to guarantee the realization of the long-term, continual, stable and healthy power industry development, avoid large rising-falling development way which is harm to the stabilization of power industry even the national economy, and help to instruct each parties in the electric power operation to select the corresponding strategy complied with the cycle.The paper analyzes the power demand cycle theory firstly. By the time series model, it studies the actual performance of power demand cycle with actual data of power demand in our country, uses the H-P filter method to obtain the periodicity factors of power demand, and researches on the characteristics of power demand cycle, studies short-cycle and medium-cycle of electric power demand with single variable state-space decomposition model. Subsequently it carries on frequency domain analysis to the power demand time series with the spectrum analysis method. Then it researches on the main drive which influences the nation power demand cycle and the existence of regional power demand cycle with correlation analysis and cluster analysis method according to the periodicity factors. And it studies the correlation between the cycle fluctuation and stage and whether or not the correlation has certain degree of asymmetry with Plucking model. After researching on the power demand cycle itself, it analyzes the fluctuant factor which influences power demand cycle according to the actual condition of nation power demand cycle.