Research On Methods Of Chaotic Forecasting And Multi-layer Situation Decision-making In Complex Economic System

In this dissertation, the research evolving on chaotic forecasting and multi-layer situation decision-making in complex system is firstly analyzed, and then the improvement of chaotic forecasting methods and multi-layer situation decision-making are more studied. The research content can be outlined as follows.Firstly, the C-ANN (chaotic artificial neural networks) forecasting model is set up based on Kolmogorov continuity theorem. The C-ANN-GA (chaotic artificial neural networks genetic algorithms) methods are put forward to solve the forecasting problem of chaotic time series non-analytic arithmetic formula, so that the forecasting methods of chaotic time series are new developed.Secondly, complex system layers-structure is analyzed and described with mathematics. It is set up that is the model of multi-layer situation decision-making in complex system. The course of modeling is a method of reasoning in turn from the bottom up. It is a new method to solve the optimization problem of harmonizing multi-layer situation decision-making in complex system.Thirdly, the aggregate of satisfactory situation decision-making is set up by introducing situation effect measure as well as the space and satisfactory degree of situation decision-making. We present a new method to find satisfactory situation decision-making;witch is a way of decision-making of combining qualitative factor with quantitative factor.Fourthly, we get a time series matrix of situation effect and corresponding situation benefit forecasting matrix by introducing time factor. A model of dynamic situation decision-making is set up based on it, so that a new method of dynamic situation decision-making is presented based on forecasting.Fifthly, the model and method of multi-layers situation decision-making in complex system is applied to rural economic system to solve the problem of rural economic multi-layers decision-making. It is testified that the model and method of multi-layers situation decision-making is more useful than ordinarily method of decision-making in solving the decision-making problem of complex economic system.